Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Markets go risk-on with the Fed's 50 bps cut a greenlight for AI/tech favourites to rebound sharply.</li>
<li>New highs for homebuilders setting the tone for further gains the Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House, while logistics may be weak after FedEx numbers.</li>
<li>Worth noting out-of-favour JP autos with high short interests and US sales ratios who may be squeeze targets with undeployed capital and foreigners coming back to the Japanese market post-Fed.</li>
</ul>


Markets go risk-on with the Fed's 50 bps cut a greenlight for AI/tech favourites to rebound sharply.
New highs for homebuilders setting the tone for further gains the Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House, while logistics may be weak after FedEx numbers.
Worth noting out-of-favour JP autos with high short interests and US sales ratios who may be squeeze targets with undeployed capital and foreigners coming back to the Japanese market post-Fed.


Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a></strong>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.</li>
<li>Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.</li>
<li>For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.</li>
</ul>


The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.
Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.
For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.


Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

Price Gauge
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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets

Markets go risk-on with AI/tech favorites rebounding sharply, homebuilders hitting new highs, JP autos with high short interests and US sales...

Andrew Jackson

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...

Michael Causton

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets

Markets go risk-on with AI/tech favorites rebounding sharply, homebuilders hitting new highs, JP autos with high short interests and US sales...

Andrew Jackson

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

​The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...

Michael Causton

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...