Partner

Patrick Eng

Sparkill & Co

Credit

2020 is finally over. We now have to look forward to 2021. I will leave you with one last thought different than the consensus on China’s total social financing (“TSF”) growth. Many still believe that growth in China’s debt to GDP is unproductive. This so-called unproductive use of capital can only lead to non-performing debt. But many are missing other ingredients to dismiss this theory.

2020 is finally over. We now have to look forward to 2021. I will leave you with one last thought different than the consensus on China’s total social financing (“TSF”) growth. Many still believe that growth in China’s debt to GDP is unproductive. This so-called unproductive use of capital can only lead to non-performing debt. But many are missing other ingredients to dismiss this theory.

China: COVID Accelerating China’s Capital Markets–Total Social Financing Should Be Good In A Crisis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China - “Doctor Of The Developing World”<ol>
<li>Who Is Dr. Chen Wolf Warrior? China’s Vaccine Boring But Beautiful.</li>
<li>What Does The COVID Vaccine Race Do For China?</li>
<li>From Doctor To… What Else…Future China Investment Implications</li>
</ol>

China - “Doctor Of The Developing World”
Who Is Dr. Chen Wolf Warrior? China’s Vaccine Boring But Beautiful.
What Does The COVID Vaccine Race Do For China?
From Doctor To… What Else…Future China Investment Implications
 

China Doing What It Does Best – Copying: Making Old Products/Vaccines Better & Cheaper

Equity Bottom-Up

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding / Equity Bottom-Up

1. Why Is Beijing Allowing Defaults To Occur? Perhaps New Debt Narrative.
2. What is Yi Gang Of The PBOC Signaling To The Market? Perhaps A New Risk Paradigm Among     Debt Investors
3. How Does All This Benefit Yangzijiang?

1. Why Is Beijing Allowing Defaults To Occur? Perhaps New Debt Narrative.
2. What is Yi Gang Of The PBOC Signaling To The Market? Perhaps A New Risk Paradigm Among     Debt Investors
3. How Does All This Benefit Yangzijiang?

Yangzijiang–China’s Private Credit/Shadow Banker: Beijing New Risk Paradigm & Debt Default Tailwind

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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Yesterday, MSCI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/The%20changes%20will%20be%20effective%20after%20the%20close%20of%20trading%20on%2030%20November." target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its November 2020 Semi-Annual Index Review.  As widely anticipated, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> are shown the exit, reducing the number of index constituents to 19. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 November.
In <a href="https://skr.ma/N64Lw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSCI Singapore Index Rebalance Nov20: Shrinking Number of Constituents</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> reckons 8.9 days of ADV to sell of JCNC from passive funds. JCNC is down ~3% today as I type, against +3% for ASII.
I see JCNC's discount to NAV at ~36% against a 12-month average of ~17%, having recently moved off its all-time low of ~38%.
As JCNC is all-but a proxy into Astra, this appears a straight-forward mean reversion play. 
</div>
More below the fold.


Yesterday, MSCI announced its November 2020 Semi-Annual Index Review.  As widely anticipated, Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) are shown the exit, reducing the number of index constituents to 19. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 November.
In MSCI Singapore Index Rebalance Nov20: Shrinking Number of Constituents, Brian Freitas reckons 8.9 days of ADV to sell of JCNC from passive funds. JCNC is down ~3% today as I type, against +3% for ASII.
I see JCNC's discount to NAV at ~36% against a 12-month average of ~17%, having recently moved off its all-time low of ~38%.
As JCNC is all-but a proxy into Astra, this appears a straight-forward mean reversion play. 

More below the fold.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage: "Buy The Fact" On MSCI Deletion

What Is The Current State Of Shadow Banking (“SB”) In China?What Should We Pay For A Short Term Private Debt Business Earning High-Mid Teen Returns?Or What Should The Valuation Be If Yangzijiang IPOed Their Lending Business?This Is The 5th Chapter In Our Yangzijiang Series. Please Refer To Chapters 1-4 For The Rest Of The Story.

What Is The Current State Of Shadow Banking (“SB”) In China?What Should We Pay For A Short Term Private Debt Business Earning High-Mid Teen Returns?Or What Should The Valuation Be If Yangzijiang IPOed Their Lending Business?This Is The 5th Chapter In Our Yangzijiang Series. Please Refer To Chapters 1-4 For The Rest Of The Story.

Yangzijiang – 16 Billion Of Shadow Banking Loans – A Premier China “BDC / Private Lender”

Singapore

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited builds a wide range of ships. The Company produces a wide range of commercial vessels, mini bulk carriers, multi-purpose cargo vessels, containerships, chemical tankers, offshore supply vessels, rescue and salvage vessels, and lifting vessels.

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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)

China Doing What It Does Best – Copying: Making Old Products/Vaccines Better & Cheaper

China Vaccine - using its math, science, and manufacturing strength to play Doctor to the world. They were the clinical trials themselves and now...

Patrick Eng

Yangzijiang–China’s Private Credit/Shadow Banker: Beijing New Risk Paradigm & Debt Default Tailwind

Yangzijiang, One of China's oldest & largest shadow bank financiers receiving industry developmental assistance from Beijing - In a crisis, shake...

Patrick Eng

Jardine Cycle & Carriage: "Buy The Fact" On MSCI Deletion

As Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is all-but a proxy into Astra International (ASII IJ), this appears a straight-forward mean reversion play.

David Blennerhassett

Yangzijiang – 16 Billion Of Shadow Banking Loans – A Premier China “BDC / Private Lender”

Yangzijiang: A Veteran Shadow Bank Financier Capitalizing On China's SME Need For Capital - A True Private Debt Investor & Secured High Yield Investor

Patrick Eng

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China: COVID Accelerating China’s Capital Markets–Total Social Financing Should Be Good In A Crisis

China's Total Social Financing should reap the rewards similar to investing in a crisis COVID is accelerating China's financial markets and deepening.

Patrick Eng

China Doing What It Does Best – Copying: Making Old Products/Vaccines Better & Cheaper

China Vaccine - using its math, science, and manufacturing strength to play Doctor to the world. They were the clinical trials themselves and now...

Patrick Eng

Yangzijiang–China’s Private Credit/Shadow Banker: Beijing New Risk Paradigm & Debt Default Tailwind

Yangzijiang, One of China's oldest & largest shadow bank financiers receiving industry developmental assistance from Beijing - In a crisis, shake...

Patrick Eng

Jardine Cycle & Carriage: "Buy The Fact" On MSCI Deletion

As Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is all-but a proxy into Astra International (ASII IJ), this appears a straight-forward mean reversion play.

David Blennerhassett

Yangzijiang – 16 Billion Of Shadow Banking Loans – A Premier China “BDC / Private Lender”

Yangzijiang: A Veteran Shadow Bank Financier Capitalizing On China's SME Need For Capital - A True Private Debt Investor & Secured High Yield Investor

Patrick Eng