IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (6608 HK)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.</p></div>

Bairong (6608 HK) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (1569395D CH)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. Biarong will commence trading on Wednesday, 31 March. Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2920642/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E7%99%BE%E8%9E%8D%E9%9B%B2%E5%89%B56608%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E6%BD%9B%E6%B0%B4%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%9D%951400%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened around -9% lower</a> at HK$29 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions and declining market sentiment on Chinese tech names. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-initiation-creditworthy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49249" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy</a>, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49418" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$35.79 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. </p></div></div></div>

Bairong (1569395D CH) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. Biarong will commence trading on Wednesday, 31 March. Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and opened around -9% lower at HK$29 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions and declining market sentiment on Chinese tech names. In Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$35.79 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. 

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (1569395D CH)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$26.50-31.80 per share, Bairong will have a market cap of HK$13,125.2-15,750.2 million ($1.7-2.0 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$3,440.7 million ($443 million). Three cornerstone investors will purchase $220 million worth of the offer shares (47.29% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are Cederberg (a London-based fund manager), China Structural Reform Fund and Franchise Fund. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-initiation-creditworthy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49249" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy</a>, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO. </p></div></div></div>

Bairong (1569395D CH) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$26.50-31.80 per share, Bairong will have a market cap of HK$13,125.2-15,750.2 million ($1.7-2.0 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$3,440.7 million ($443 million). Three cornerstone investors will purchase $220 million worth of the offer shares (47.29% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are Cederberg (a London-based fund manager), China Structural Reform Fund and Franchise Fund. In Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO. 

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (1569395D CH)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Bairong is aiming to launch its $300-500 million HKEx IPO as soon as this Friday, according to press reports. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-initiation-creditworthy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49249" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy</a>, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Bairong's potential valuation. </p></div></div></div>

Bairong (1569395D CH) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Bairong is aiming to launch its $300-500 million HKEx IPO as soon as this Friday, according to press reports. In Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Bairong's potential valuation. 

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agora-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29037:1" rel="noopener">Agora Inc. (API US)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$431m in its upcoming IPO with concurrent placement.</p><p>The company runs a platform that provides developers with Application Programming Interfaces (API) to embed real-time video, voice and messaging functionalities into their application without having to build it from scratch themselves. </p><p>We think that the lack of disclosure and potentially high churn of customers (mentioned in previous note) are causes of concern that the current valuation at IPO price range do not account for.</p><p>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.</p><p>Our earlier coverage of the IPO: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agora-pre-ipo-voicing-out-concerns-on-data-disclosure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40273" rel="noopener">Agora Pre-IPO - Voicing Out Concerns on Data Disclosure</a> </p>

Agora Inc. (API US)  is looking to raise up to US$431m in its upcoming IPO with concurrent placement.The company runs a platform that provides developers with Application Programming Interfaces (API) to embed real-time video, voice and messaging functionalities into their application without having to build it from scratch themselves. We think that the lack of disclosure and potentially high churn of customers (mentioned in previous note) are causes of concern that the current valuation at IPO price range do not account for.In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.Our earlier coverage of the IPO: Agora Pre-IPO - Voicing Out Concerns on Data Disclosure 

Agora Inc. IPO - Same Issues at Unattractive Valuation

United States

Yext, Inc. provides digital media technology services. The Company offers advertising, monetization, phone, and directory services including business listings on search sites and real-time reputation management. Yext serves customers worldwide.

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Yext Inc (YEXT US)

Bairong: Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry

Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential...

Arun George

Bairong IPO: Trading Debut

Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and opened around -9% lower at HK$29 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market...

Arun George

Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights

Bairong has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of $443m at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$26.50-31.80 per share. Our valuation...

Arun George

Bairong IPO: Valuation First Look

Bairong is aiming to launch its $300-500m HKEx IPO as soon as this Friday, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and...

Arun George

Agora Inc. IPO - Same Issues at Unattractive Valuation

Agora Inc. (API US) is looking to raise up to US$431m in its upcoming IPO with concurrent placement.The company runs a platform that provides...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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