Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">Our base case valuation of DearU is implied market cap of 746 billion won or 33,907 won per share, which is 41% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 24,000 won. Given the solid upside, we have a POSITIVE view of the DearU IPO and we would subscribe to the deal.</div>Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 33.9x our estimated profit of 22 billion won in 2022. The valuation multiple of 33.9x is based on a 10% premium to the average P/E valuation multiple of the peers in 2022. We have used a 10% premium mainly due to the much higher sales growth rate of the company as well as higher operating margin of DearU as compared to its peers, despite its lower sales and earnings base. We estimate DearU to generate sales of 40.5 billion won in 2021, up 210.7% YoY and 67.7 billion won in sales in 2022, up 67% YoY. We also estimate the company to generate an operating profit of 13.4 billion won in 2021 and 22 billion won in 2022. This represents an operating margin of 33.1% in 2021 and 32.5% in 2022.

Our base case valuation of DearU is implied market cap of 746 billion won or 33,907 won per share, which is 41% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 24,000 won. Given the solid upside, we have a POSITIVE view of the DearU IPO and we would subscribe to the deal.Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 33.9x our estimated profit of 22 billion won in 2022. The valuation multiple of 33.9x is based on a 10% premium to the average P/E valuation multiple of the peers in 2022. We have used a 10% premium mainly due to the much higher sales growth rate of the company as well as higher operating margin of DearU as compared to its peers, despite its lower sales and earnings base. We estimate DearU to generate sales of 40.5 billion won in 2021, up 210.7% YoY and 67.7 billion won in sales in 2022, up 67% YoY. We also estimate the company to generate an operating profit of 13.4 billion won in 2021 and 22 billion won in 2022. This represents an operating margin of 33.1% in 2021 and 32.5% in 2022.

The Forbes magazine has an excellent<a href="https://www.forbes.com/soccer-valuations/list/#tab:overall" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> list</a> of the valuations of the top 20 football (soccer) teams in the world. Founded in 1902, the Real Madrid football team has been around for nearly 118 years. Real Madrid is the most valuable football franchise in the world with a valuation of $4.2 billion.
<div class="content-highlight">
Warren Buffett always recommended his followers to think in terms of buying the whole business rather than a small fraction of the business. We ask our readers this question, "If you had a choice of buying a 100% stake in either Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment AT THE SAME PRICE, which company would you buy?" In this insight, we go through the details of why most serious investors would buy Real Madrid rather than Big Hit at the same price. In addition, such a comparison could shed greater light on why Big Hit Entertainment IPO is more likely to be a dud rather than a big success.
</div>

The Forbes magazine has an excellent list of the valuations of the top 20 football (soccer) teams in the world. Founded in 1902, the Real Madrid football team has been around for nearly 118 years. Real Madrid is the most valuable football franchise in the world with a valuation of $4.2 billion.

Warren Buffett always recommended his followers to think in terms of buying the whole business rather than a small fraction of the business. We ask our readers this question, "If you had a choice of buying a 100% stake in either Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment AT THE SAME PRICE, which company would you buy?" In this insight, we go through the details of why most serious investors would buy Real Madrid rather than Big Hit at the same price. In addition, such a comparison could shed greater light on why Big Hit Entertainment IPO is more likely to be a dud rather than a big success.


Would You Rather Buy Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment for the Same Price?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Big Hit came up a little short of beating the previous record-holder (Kakao Games), but still, it proved that it could become another hot IPO in Korea.The final subscription rate was 1,117 to 1 as a total of 1,420 institutions bothered to care for this IPO. Of them, 125 (excluding those categorized in Foreign Others) came from overseas. Well, it isn't a lot for an IPO of this size.









By investor type
Institution
%
Demand
%


Local PO funds
478
33.66%
1,775,621,000
37.15%


Local BR/IA
31
2.18%
124,161,000
2.60%


Local pension/bank/insurance
253
17.82%
911,131,000
19.06%


Local others (hedge funds)
325
22.89%
1,163,673,000
24.35%


Foreign (foreign funds)
125
8.80%
90,662,789
1.90%


Foreign others (local hot money)
208
14.65%
714,365,000
14.95%


Total
1,420
100.00%
4,779,613,789
100.00%


Subscription rate
1,117.25

Source: DART

The pricing was aggressive. Everyone priced it at 75% of the upper end or higher.But there is a tendency here. The local institutions showed greater affection as they priced it more aggressively. The foreign institutions? Well, none of them placed their orders above the upper end.









By price
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
422
29.74%
1,544,842,000
32.32%


75-100% of high end
959
67.58%
3,121,231,789
65.30%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
1
0.07%
8,000
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
1,000
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
37
2.61%
113,531,000
2.38%


Total
1,419
100.00%
4,779,613,789
100.00%

Source: DART











Local PO funds
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
195
40.79%
715,327,000
40.29%


75-100% of high end
258
53.97%
984,017,000
55.42%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
25
5.23%
76,277,000
4.30%


Total
478
100.00%
1,775,621,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Local BR/IA
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
5
16.13%
21,390,000
17.23%


75-100% of high end
26
83.87%
102,771,000
82.77%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
31
100.00%
124,161,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Local pension/bank/insurance
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
104
41.11%
384,988,000
42.25%


75-100% of high end
145
57.31%
513,301,000
56.34%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
1
0.40%
8,000
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
3
1.19%
12,834,000
1.41%


Total
253
100.00%
911,131,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Local others (hedge funds)
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
118
36.31%
423,137,000
36.36%


75-100% of high end
197
60.62%
716,115,000
61.54%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
1,000
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
9
2.77%
24,420,000
2.10%


Total
325
100.00%
1,163,673,000
100.00%

Source: DART











Foreign (foreign funds)
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of high end
125
100.00%
90,662,789
100.00%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
125
100.00%
90,662,789
100.00%

Source: DART











Foreign others (local hot money)
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of high end
208
100.00%
714,365,000
100.00%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of the median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Total
208
100.00%
714,365,000
100.00%

Source: DART

Lock-up is also a bit disappointing. The final result is 44%, but nearly two-thirds are one month or less, suggesting there is a long-term trust issue here.








Lock-up

6 months
464,723,000


3 months
391,101,000


1 months
1,035,585,543


15 days
204,450,464


Total
2,095,860,007


- %
43.85%

Source: DART



Big Hit IPO: Book-Building Results, Mood, & BeNX (WEVERSE) Ownership Issue

Big Hit Entertainment announced its IPO pricing today. The IPO was priced at 135,000 won, which was at the highest end of the IPO price range. The Big Hit Entertainment IPO will start trading on October 15th. The company will complete its retail offering on October 6th. Our view on the Big Hit Entertainment IPO has been negative and continues to be negative. However, the bookbuilding data suggest that bookbuilding was a big success. There was an overwhelming positive sentiment on this IPO bookbuilding.<div class="content-highlight">Thus, our bearish call on this stock is turning out to be the BIGGEST CONTRARIAN CALL that we have made all this year. However, is our contrarian call one that will turn into a bust? In other words, will Big Hit Entertainment's stock price surge higher and remain at much higher levels as compared to the IPO price similar to Kakao Games and SK Biopharm IPOs this year? </div>

Big Hit Entertainment announced its IPO pricing today. The IPO was priced at 135,000 won, which was at the highest end of the IPO price range. The Big Hit Entertainment IPO will start trading on October 15th. The company will complete its retail offering on October 6th. Our view on the Big Hit Entertainment IPO has been negative and continues to be negative. However, the bookbuilding data suggest that bookbuilding was a big success. There was an overwhelming positive sentiment on this IPO bookbuilding.Thus, our bearish call on this stock is turning out to be the BIGGEST CONTRARIAN CALL that we have made all this year. However, is our contrarian call one that will turn into a bust? In other words, will Big Hit Entertainment's stock price surge higher and remain at much higher levels as compared to the IPO price similar to Kakao Games and SK Biopharm IPOs this year? 

Trading Strategy for Big Hit Entertainment - A Contrarian Call Going Bust?

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide further analysis of Big Hit Entertainment's WeVerse. In 2019, Big Hit Entertainment launched an online platform called WeVerse where fans can watch concerts live and where Big Hit artists and their fans can communicate. Big Hit Entertainment (BHE) established BNX as a consolidated subsidiary in July 2018 and BHE launched the WeVerse Shop (global fan commerce application) and WeVerse (global fan community application) in June 2019. </li>
<li>The bankers are really pushing WeVerse and even using Naver and Kakao as comparable companies in the valuation analysis of Big Hit Entertainment. However, will the institutional investors really buy this story? No. we do not believe most institutional investors will buy this story.</li>
<li>In 2018, Big Hit Entertainment resigned a seven-year contract with all seven members of BTS for another seven years (January 1st, 2018 to <a href="https://paxnetnews.com/articles/64678" target="_blank" rel="noopener">December 31st, 2024</a>). So all seven members of BTS will work for Big Hit Entertainment in the next 4 years and 3 months. Afterward, what happens to BTS is highly uncertain. One scenario is that Big Hit Entertainment continues to keep all seven members of BTS. However, in our view, the higher probability scenario is that BTS will be broken up somehow.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide further analysis of Big Hit Entertainment's WeVerse. In 2019, Big Hit Entertainment launched an online platform called WeVerse where fans can watch concerts live and where Big Hit artists and their fans can communicate. Big Hit Entertainment (BHE) established BNX as a consolidated subsidiary in July 2018 and BHE launched the WeVerse Shop (global fan commerce application) and WeVerse (global fan community application) in June 2019. 
The bankers are really pushing WeVerse and even using Naver and Kakao as comparable companies in the valuation analysis of Big Hit Entertainment. However, will the institutional investors really buy this story? No. we do not believe most institutional investors will buy this story.
In 2018, Big Hit Entertainment resigned a seven-year contract with all seven members of BTS for another seven years (January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2024). So all seven members of BTS will work for Big Hit Entertainment in the next 4 years and 3 months. Afterward, what happens to BTS is highly uncertain. One scenario is that Big Hit Entertainment continues to keep all seven members of BTS. However, in our view, the higher probability scenario is that BTS will be broken up somehow.


Big Hit Entertainment's WeVerse Is No Match for Naver and Kakao

South Korea

YG Entertainment Inc., produces and markets music recording, music publishing, record manufacturing/sales, artist management, concert production, and new artist discovering/training.

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YG Entertainment (122870 KS)

DearU IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of DearU is implied market cap of 746 billion won or 33,907 won per share, which is 41% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Would You Rather Buy Real Madrid or Big Hit Entertainment for the Same Price?

We go through the details of why most serious investors would buy Real Madrid rather than Big Hit at the same price. In addition, such a comparison...

Douglas Kim

Big Hit IPO: Book-Building Results, Mood, & BeNX (WEVERSE) Ownership Issue

???

Sanghyun Park

Trading Strategy for Big Hit Entertainment - A Contrarian Call Going Bust?

Big Hit Entertainment announced its IPO pricing today. The IPO was priced at 135,000 won, which was at the highest end of the IPO price range. The...

Douglas Kim

Big Hit Entertainment's WeVerse Is No Match for Naver and Kakao

In 2019, Big Hit Entertainment launched an online platform called WeVerse where fans can watch concerts live and where Big Hit artists and their...

Douglas Kim

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