Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that he was in no rush to end the bank’s low interest rate policy.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 4.2% in January, a level not seen since 1981.</li>
<li>Japanese stocks ended the week down 0.2%. Tech stocks were buoyed by Advantest (+7%) and Nikon (+5%)</li>
</ul>


Incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that he was in no rush to end the bank’s low interest rate policy.
Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 4.2% in January, a level not seen since 1981.
Japanese stocks ended the week down 0.2%. Tech stocks were buoyed by Advantest (+7%) and Nikon (+5%)


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red for 2nd week; Short yields rise again last week as hot Macro/Fedspeak drive inflation narrative; GM sets sights on Tesla; MSFT AI gets ..well Emotional !</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs Flat vs Cash; USDJPY 134.15; Expect little from Japan today with US off for President's Day;  Stealth Immigration as JP loosens up..barely;Deere 2023 outlook Negative Kubota</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Kubota +15% from the bottom but comments from Deere +7.5% on Small Tractors not supportive.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red for 2nd week; Short yields rise again last week as hot Macro/Fedspeak drive inflation narrative; GM sets sights on Tesla; MSFT AI gets ..well Emotional !
JAPAN. NKY Futs Flat vs Cash; USDJPY 134.15; Expect little from Japan today with US off for President's Day;  Stealth Immigration as JP loosens up..barely;Deere 2023 outlook Negative Kubota
DAILY NUGGET.  Kubota +15% from the bottom but comments from Deere +7.5% on Small Tractors not supportive.


Good Morning Japan | Equities See Red as Yields Rise; MSFT AI Goes Wild! Tesla in GM's EV Crosshairs

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX  stays positive; Energy leads as Russia cuts oil production; CPI print in focus - as market looks for Fed Pause clues; TEREX - solid print/outlook..what Recession?</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Fut -0.3% vs Cash;  USDJPY 131.36; Shock at Professor Ueda as BOJ Gov; Yen rallies then weakens post his Presser;  Govt to guarantee 15% margins for Defense suppliers?</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Fun take - ChatGPT on BOJ Governor to be Kazuo Ueda.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX  stays positive; Energy leads as Russia cuts oil production; CPI print in focus - as market looks for Fed Pause clues; TEREX - solid print/outlook..what Recession?
JAPAN. NKY Fut -0.3% vs Cash;  USDJPY 131.36; Shock at Professor Ueda as BOJ Gov; Yen rallies then weakens post his Presser;  Govt to guarantee 15% margins for Defense suppliers?
DAILY NUGGET. Fun take - ChatGPT on BOJ Governor to be Kazuo Ueda.


Good Morning Japan |SPX Hangs on Ahead of Key CPI Print; BOJ Gov Candidate Shocker->ChatGPT's View

Japan

The Yokohama Rubber Company Limited produces rubber products including automobile tires, tubes, and conveyor belt for industrial use.  The Company also produces golf clubs and passenger aircraft parts such as restroom units and tanks for drinking water.

Yokohama Rubber (5101 JP)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Weekly | Yokohama Rubber, Mercari

We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks on our watchlists that have appreciated or dropped more than 10% during the course of the week

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Equities See Red as Yields Rise; MSFT AI Goes Wild! Tesla in GM's EV Crosshairs

US Equitie down again as Inflation narrative takes root; MSFT AI goes wild; Expect little from Japan with US President's Day; JP Stealth...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Hangs on Ahead of Key CPI Print; BOJ Gov Candidate Shocker->ChatGPT's View

US CPI in focus; BOJ Surprise Nominee - do not expect anything revolutonary. After Gov designate Ueda's news conference on Friday, that market has...

Mark Chadwick