Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the BOJ being forced to step in to hold 10 year rates under 0.25% today the yen is under increasing pressure. </li>
<li>There are naturally a variety of stocks which are likely to benefit from this multi-decade breakout of the yen dollar. </li>
<li>Mazda is one of the best plays here in our view and we lay out the rather simple case below.</li>
</ul>


With the BOJ being forced to step in to hold 10 year rates under 0.25% today the yen is under increasing pressure. 
There are naturally a variety of stocks which are likely to benefit from this multi-decade breakout of the yen dollar. 
Mazda is one of the best plays here in our view and we lay out the rather simple case below.


Mazda – A Buy As The Yen Weakens With The BOJ Trapped

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  </li>
<li>Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.</li>
<li>Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. </li>
</ul>


Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  
Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.
Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. 


Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

<ul>
<li>In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.</li>
<li>Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.</li>
<li>These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.</li>
</ul>


In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.
Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.
These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.


Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Mazda – A Buy As The Yen Weakens With The BOJ Trapped

With the BOJ being forced to step in to hold 10 year rates under 0.25% today the yen is under increasing pressure. Mazda is one of the best plays...

Mio Kato

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

With Toyota having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has set the ball rolling for unwinding its cross...

Sumeet Singh

Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Toyota saw a huge miss in Q2 and admits they're revamping their EV plans. This may seem negative, but it's a huge positive ahead of a recovering...

SC Capital

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines and is now partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to potentially...

Mio Kato