Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period nearly complete, we see 7 potential adds and 9 potential deletes at the December rebalance. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.28% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.42bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have dropped over the last month while the potential deletes have moved higher over the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


The review period nearly complete, we see 7 potential adds and 9 potential deletes at the December rebalance. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.28% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.42bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have dropped over the last month while the potential deletes have moved higher over the last couple of weeks.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Shift as IT and Financials Drop

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Lichen China, niche provider of financial and taxation services, filed for an IPO in the United States, and plans to raise ~$25M. Investment bank Univest Securities is leading the offering. </li>
<li>The company applied to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lichen-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36311:1" rel="noopener">Lichen China (LICN US)</a> and will have Class A shares and Class B shares. </li>
<li>We have a favorable view of the upcoming IPO, and consider an IPO valuation of ~$119M as attractive at ~2x EV/FY22E revenue and a forward P/E of ~14x.  </li>
</ul>


Lichen China, niche provider of financial and taxation services, filed for an IPO in the United States, and plans to raise ~$25M. Investment bank Univest Securities is leading the offering. 
The company applied to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol Lichen China (LICN US) and will have Class A shares and Class B shares. 
We have a favorable view of the upcoming IPO, and consider an IPO valuation of ~$119M as attractive at ~2x EV/FY22E revenue and a forward P/E of ~14x.  


Lichen China IPO Preview: Your Trusted Provider of Financial and Taxation Services

<ul>
<li>Over 80% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance, we see 7 stocks in inclusion/exclusion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.9% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 2.85bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> by a wide margin over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


Over 80% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance, we see 7 stocks in inclusion/exclusion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.9% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 2.85bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) by a wide margin over the last few months.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation To Continue

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li> More difficult for companies to obtain and accumulate data;</li>
<li>Digital advertising alliance will be impacted, precision advertising ROI will decline</li>
<li>Mobility service provider like Didi, Ctrip will no longer able to offer differentiate pricing through user profile, also restricted for containing  on national geographic information security</li>
<li>Public Cloud market will transfer from current internet cloud provider to state-owned cloud, benefit infrastructure and service providers</li>
<li>Facial Recognition AI such as in-car camera for autonomous driving assistance will be impacted</li>
<li>Short video content platform will have restrictions on the use of recommendation algorithms, which may cause a decline in user time, and the ecommerce product recommendation accuracy</li>
<li>Internet companies with more than 1mn users that have plans to list in US will have to reconsider</li>
</ul>


 More difficult for companies to obtain and accumulate data;
Digital advertising alliance will be impacted, precision advertising ROI will decline
Mobility service provider like Didi, Ctrip will no longer able to offer differentiate pricing through user profile, also restricted for containing  on national geographic information security
Public Cloud market will transfer from current internet cloud provider to state-owned cloud, benefit infrastructure and service providers
Facial Recognition AI such as in-car camera for autonomous driving assistance will be impacted
Short video content platform will have restrictions on the use of recommendation algorithms, which may cause a decline in user time, and the ecommerce product recommendation accuracy
Internet companies with more than 1mn users that have plans to list in US will have to reconsider


Law & Order: What the New Data Security Laws Mean for China's Tech Sector?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (6608 HK)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.</p></div>

Bairong (6608 HK) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.

China

Yonyou Network Technology Co., Ltd. develops and markets enterprise-wide business applications software, including financial, web-based, management, and security development software. The Company also offers training programs.

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Yonyou Network Technology A (600588 CH)

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Shift as IT and Financials Drop

We forecast 5 changes in December as Energy, Industrials and Materials weights increase and IT and Financials drop. One-way turnover will be over...

Brian Freitas

Lichen China IPO Preview: Your Trusted Provider of Financial and Taxation Services

We have a favorable view of the upcoming Lichen China IPO and see potential for sustained growth and profitability expansion over time

Andrei Zakharov

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation To Continue

We forecast 5 changes for the SSE50 Index in December. There are a few names that are close to add/delete zone and price/volume changes can lead to...

Brian Freitas

Law & Order: What the New Data Security Laws Mean for China's Tech Sector?

China's recent new sweeping data security and protection laws have set the tech sector in turmoil, We examin what are the impact way forward.

Evelyn Zhang

Bairong: Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry

Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential...

Arun George

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