Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.
Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.</li>
<li>In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.</li>
<li>We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.
In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.
We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

I added 3 more single subsidiary holding companies: Doosan Corp, Hwaseung Industries, and Hanil Holdings. I now track a total of 18 local holding companies for a single subsidiary stub trade.Out of these 18 names, 6 holding companies are currently below -0.5σ on a 20-day moving average. Hanil Holdings, one of the three newbies, is in the harshest diversion at -1.44σ relative to its subsidiary, Hanil Cement. Younghone Holdings and Green Cross Holdings follow at -0.99σ and -0.86σ, respectively.







Holdco
Subsidiary
Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average


Amorepacific Group
Amorepacific Corp
-0.69


BGF Co Ltd
BGF Retail Co Ltd
-0.84


Halla Holdings Corp
Mando Corp
1.35


Hanjin Kal
Korean Air Lines Co Ltd
1.18


Hankook &amp; Company Co Ltd
Hankook Tire &amp; Technology Co Ltd
1.46


HANSAE YES24 HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
Hansae Co., Ltd.
-0.23


HDC Holdings Co Ltd
HDC Hyundai Development Co
0.92


Nexen Corporation
Nexen Tire Corp
2.33


Nongshim Holdings Co Ltd
Nongshim Co Ltd
0.44


ORION Holdings Corp
Orion Corp
-0.49


Poongsan Holdings Corporation
POONGSAN CORPORATION
0.18


Youngone Holdings Co Ltd
Youngone Corporation
-0.99


Green Cross Holdings
Green Cross Corp
-0.86


Hitejinro Holdings Co Ltd
HiteJinro Co Ltd
0.29


Seah Holdings Corp
Seah Besteel Corporation
-1.45


* Doosan Corp
* Doosan Heavy Industries Constrctn Co Ltd
0.63


* HWASEUNG Industries Co Ltd
* Hwaseung Enterprise Co Ltd
-0.81


* Hanil Holdings Co Ltd
* Hanil Cement Co Ltd
-1.44

Source: KRX

Starting with this insight, I made some changes in my calculation of NAV. I estimated each holding company's operating operation based on their latest de-consolidated operating profit. It is mostly brand royalty and office rental income. I used operating profit to exclude dividend income.So, here is the revised NAV discount of each holding company in my monitoring list. Seah Holdings and Halla Holdings have the highest discount to the NAV at 76.65% and 73.29%, respectively. In contrast, Hanjin Kal continues to trade at a premium (11.75%) to the NAV. Amorepacific Group and Hankook &amp; Co are also trading at a relatively low discount to the NAV. 








Discount &amp; weight
NAV discount
Single subsidiary weight in NAV
Single subsidiary weight in GAV


Amorepacific Group
20.18%
88.64%
88.53%


BGF Co Ltd
65.06%
59.17%
67.74%


Halla Holdings Corp
73.29%
53.98%
41.33%


Hanjin Kal
-11.75%
79.03%
79.81%


Hankook &amp; Company Co Ltd
26.04%
75.52%
81.38%


HANSAE YES24 HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
49.69%
58.92%
53.06%


HDC Holdings Co Ltd
50.47%
49.76%
44.85%


Nexen Corporation
62.60%
48.57%
48.66%


Nongshim Holdings Co Ltd
65.63%
60.30%
60.68%


ORION Holdings Corp
50.42%
89.56%
81.83%


Poongsan Holdings Corporation
53.62%
77.10%
81.20%


Youngone Holdings Co Ltd
60.75%
70.04%
74.12%


Green Cross Holdings
65.62%
121.52%
74.74%


Hitejinro Holdings Co Ltd
32.92%
86.35%
71.58%


Seah Holdings Corp
76.65%
40.07%
37.64%


* Doosan Corp
71.00%
70.92%
50.32%


* HWASEUNG Industries Co Ltd
59.62%
78.05%
72.68%


* Hanil Holdings Co Ltd
53.40%
77.85%
67.20%

Source: KRX



Korea Single Subsidiary Stub Trade: 18 in Total with 3 New Ones

<div class="content-highlight">In this insight, we highlight the closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean holdcos and opcos, especially with the upcoming end of the ban on the short selling of shares in Korea in May. In this insight, we highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</div>Just a reminder that the ban on short selling of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 included stocks will remain in place until May 2nd and investors will be able to resume their shorting on these 350 stocks starting on May 3rd. Once this ban on short selling of stocks ends, there could be more investors that may look to add to the holdco shares and short the opco shares (especially among the pairs where the holdco shares have underperformed the opco shares in the past year). However, some of these moves have already started to take place in the past few weeks, which could reduce the overall profits on the pair trades. Traditionally, the pair trades involving Korean holdcos and opcos have been a trading strategy that many hedge funds have employed for many years. However, the ban on short selling of stocks in Korea have prevented many of these funds from employing these pair trade strategies. Once the ban ends, you will likely see these funds becoming more active in these trading methods once again. <div class="content-highlight">
In the section below, we separated the pair trades into two different sections. The first table involves major opcos outperforming holdcos (regular and quasi) in the past year. Of the 26 pair trade strategies mentioned in this insight, this section I involves 19 of them (73% of total). The section II (which involve holdcos outperforming the opcos in the past year) involves 7 pair trade strategies (27% of total).
In other words, the opcos in general have vastly outperformed the holdcos in the past year, especially due to the ban on the short selling of stocks in Korea. Because the opcos tend to be the bigger company than the holdcos in terms of market cap, many fund managers (both active and passive) have tended to just invest in the opcos and pay less attention to the holdcos.  
</div>Also, we described the holdcos as either regular or quasi. SK Telecom and Samsung C&amp;T would be examples of "quasi" holdcos whereas Orion Holdings and Hanjin Kal would be examples of regular holdcos.

In this insight, we highlight the closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean holdcos and opcos, especially with the upcoming end of the ban on the short selling of shares in Korea in May. In this insight, we highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.Just a reminder that the ban on short selling of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 included stocks will remain in place until May 2nd and investors will be able to resume their shorting on these 350 stocks starting on May 3rd. Once this ban on short selling of stocks ends, there could be more investors that may look to add to the holdco shares and short the opco shares (especially among the pairs where the holdco shares have underperformed the opco shares in the past year). However, some of these moves have already started to take place in the past few weeks, which could reduce the overall profits on the pair trades. Traditionally, the pair trades involving Korean holdcos and opcos have been a trading strategy that many hedge funds have employed for many years. However, the ban on short selling of stocks in Korea have prevented many of these funds from employing these pair trade strategies. Once the ban ends, you will likely see these funds becoming more active in these trading methods once again. 
In the section below, we separated the pair trades into two different sections. The first table involves major opcos outperforming holdcos (regular and quasi) in the past year. Of the 26 pair trade strategies mentioned in this insight, this section I involves 19 of them (73% of total). The section II (which involve holdcos outperforming the opcos in the past year) involves 7 pair trade strategies (27% of total).
In other words, the opcos in general have vastly outperformed the holdcos in the past year, especially due to the ban on the short selling of stocks in Korea. Because the opcos tend to be the bigger company than the holdcos in terms of market cap, many fund managers (both active and passive) have tended to just invest in the opcos and pay less attention to the holdcos.  
Also, we described the holdcos as either regular or quasi. SK Telecom and Samsung C&amp;T would be examples of "quasi" holdcos whereas Orion Holdings and Hanjin Kal would be examples of regular holdcos. 

Closing the Gap: Korean Holdcos Vs. Opcos

Below are the 13 Korean single-sub stubs that I am closely monitoring regularly.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/137/578/original/2.png?1591046815" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="137578"></figure>Which ones are at a severe divergence at this point? Kolma and Youngone are at around (or less) -2σ. BGF and Hankook Tech are also at a level that needs our attention.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/137/579/original/1.png?1591046836" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="137579"></figure>The two leaders (Kolma and Youngone)? Their respective subsidiary accounts for 66.44% and 73.28% of the subsidiary holdings. And they are at a 56.47% and 64.68% discount to their NAV, which reaffirms that the time is ripe for stub trade.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/137/585/original/8.png?1591048115" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="137585"></figure>Where are the two now, price ratio-wise? Both are pretty close to the 2-yr low. In particular, Kolma is down nearly 70% from the 2-yr low and 45% down even from the 120D high.</figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/137/581/original/4.png?1591046856" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="137581"></figure>Again, Kolma leads the wildest falling from the 2-yr mean from a relative price perspective. Youngone has managed to calm down relative to Kolma.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/137/582/original/5.png?1591046863" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="137582"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/137/584/original/6.png?1591046899" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="137584"></figure>

Below are the 13 Korean single-sub stubs that I am closely monitoring regularly.Which ones are at a severe divergence at this point? Kolma and Youngone are at around (or less) -2σ. BGF and Hankook Tech are also at a level that needs our attention.The two leaders (Kolma and Youngone)? Their respective subsidiary accounts for 66.44% and 73.28% of the subsidiary holdings. And they are at a 56.47% and 64.68% discount to their NAV, which reaffirms that the time is ripe for stub trade.Where are the two now, price ratio-wise? Both are pretty close to the 2-yr low. In particular, Kolma is down nearly 70% from the 2-yr low and 45% down even from the 120D high.Again, Kolma leads the wildest falling from the 2-yr mean from a relative price perspective. Youngone has managed to calm down relative to Kolma.

Korean Stubs (13 in Total) Monitoring: Two Names (Kolma & Youngone) Stand Out for Trade

South Korea

Youngone Holdings Company, Ltd. manufactures, markets, and exports a line of sports wear on an original equipment manufacturing (OEM) basis. The Company's products include clothes for skiing, mountain climbing, and other sports activities. Youngone Holdings also produces sports accessories, such as gloves, backpacks, and sleeping bags.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Youngone Holdings (009970 KS)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023. We highlight 33 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage. We highlight 26 pair trades...

Douglas Kim

Korea Single Subsidiary Stub Trade: 18 in Total with 3 New Ones

This insight tracks a total of 18 single subsidiary holding companies in Korea for stub trade. I revised the NAV discounts.

Sanghyun Park

Closing the Gap: Korean Holdcos Vs. Opcos

In this insight, we highlight the closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean holdcos and opcos, especially with the upcoming end of the...

Douglas Kim

Korean Stubs (13 in Total) Monitoring: Two Names (Kolma & Youngone) Stand Out for Trade

Below are the 13 Korean single-sub stubs that I am closely monitoring regularly.Which ones are at a severe divergence at this point? Kolma and...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)