Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery</li>
<li>H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF</li>
<li>SF Intra's structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense</li>
</ul>


HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery
H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF
SF Intra's structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense


Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

<ul>
<li>Last week in its June quarter earnings release Alibaba "demoted" CaiNiao's status</li>
<li>It's become clear that boosting eComm logistics simply isn't a priority for Alibaba</li>
<li>For firms that took investment from Alibaba &amp; CaiNiao, implications are -Ive</li>
</ul>


Last week in its June quarter earnings release Alibaba "demoted" CaiNiao's status
It's become clear that boosting eComm logistics simply isn't a priority for Alibaba
For firms that took investment from Alibaba &amp; CaiNiao, implications are -Ive


Alibaba's Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To "Others" Status | Implications for Chinese Express?

<ul>
<li>The Bad: Margins &amp; cash flow both declined sharply compared to Q224 </li>
<li>The Ugly: ZTO cut FY25 parcel volume growth target after a sluggish H1</li>
<li>With no signs of a turnaround in sight, we retain our negative view of ZTO</li>
</ul>


The Bad: Margins &amp; cash flow both declined sharply compared to Q224 
The Ugly: ZTO cut FY25 parcel volume growth target after a sluggish H1
With no signs of a turnaround in sight, we retain our negative view of ZTO


ZTO Express Q225 Results: No 'Good', Just the 'Bad' and the 'Ugly'

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth in April was solid, and unit price trend appears benign</li>
<li>No signs (yet) of aggressive moves by ZTO Express to recovery volume share in Q225</li>
<li>Besides SF, express companies have struggled to differentiate themselves in recent years</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth in April was solid, and unit price trend appears benign
No signs (yet) of aggressive moves by ZTO Express to recovery volume share in Q225
Besides SF, express companies have struggled to differentiate themselves in recent years


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

<ul>
<li>In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth</li>
<li>Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further</li>
</ul>


In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further


ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

SF Intra's H125 results give us some valuable insights into China's on-demand retail segment, which has shown strong growth in recent periods.

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To "Others" Status | Implications for Chinese Express?

As part of its June quarter earnings release last week, Alibaba effectively "demoted" logistics arm CaiNiao by pushing it into a new "Others"...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q225 Results: No 'Good', Just the 'Bad' and the 'Ugly'

ZTO reported a weak set of results for Q225, with margins and cash flow declining sharply. Management also cut FY25 volume growth targets. We...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

April volume and price trends were mostly benign, but the fact remains that most of China's express companies have struggled to differentiate their...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

ZTO Express reported core margin compression again in Q125, despite an acceleration of volume growth and impressive cost control. "Key accounts"...

Tracking Traffic

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