Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inclusion of smartphone/tablet/smartwatch to trade-in subsidy will drive high single digit incremental growth for JD and Xiaomi, low single digit incremental growth for Alibaba in 2025;</li>
<li>New Year's Day transportation volume down, hotel consumption up, constituting a decent performance for a shorter holiday vs. last year. This bodes well for tourism for Chinese New Year; </li>
<li>China stepped up its signaling effort to Trump Administration that trade war measures will be retaliated. This week China added LFP battery technology to its own entity list.</li>
</ul>


Inclusion of smartphone/tablet/smartwatch to trade-in subsidy will drive high single digit incremental growth for JD and Xiaomi, low single digit incremental growth for Alibaba in 2025;
New Year's Day transportation volume down, hotel consumption up, constituting a decent performance for a shorter holiday vs. last year. This bodes well for tourism for Chinese New Year; 
China stepped up its signaling effort to Trump Administration that trade war measures will be retaliated. This week China added LFP battery technology to its own entity list.


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. </li>
<li>This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.</li>
<li>Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).</li>
</ul>


Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. 
This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.
Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).


Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125</li>
<li>Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here</li>
</ul>


In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125
Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement
Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here


J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

<ul>
<li>H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125</li>
<li>We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression</li>
<li>SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting</li>
</ul>


H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125
We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression
SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting


SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）</li>
<li>3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)</li>
</ul>


JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)
700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）
3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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YTO Express (600233 CH)

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Strong growth from J&T Global in H126, with overall revenue up 40% and adj EBITDA up an impressive 68%. But shares appear to be trading on 20x FY26...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

​Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

​E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Strong growth from J&T Global in H126, with overall revenue up 40% and adj EBITDA up an impressive 68%. But shares appear to be trading on 20x FY26...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

​Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...