Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q424, there were dramatic shifts in share among the six listed Chinese express companies</li>
<li>STO and J&amp;T gained the most volume share, while volume leader ZTO gave up the most</li>
<li>STO won share without ceding much price; ZTO still has not settled on a new strategy</li>
</ul>


In Q424, there were dramatic shifts in share among the six listed Chinese express companies
STO and J&amp;T gained the most volume share, while volume leader ZTO gave up the most
STO won share without ceding much price; ZTO still has not settled on a new strategy


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker: Fight For Parcel Volume Share Heated Up in Q424 (January 2025)

<ul>
<li>Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?</li>
<li>In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs</li>
</ul>


Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs


ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe Tencent's inclusion in the US DoD CMC List and removal from USTR's NML are both non-events in the long run but not in the short run;</li>
<li>Latest data in holiday travel, parcel volume and home sales painted robust start in 2025, but unstable equity market posts a looming threat;</li>
<li>NetEase's newly released games were well-received and above our expectations. New game pipeline also brightens outlook.</li>
</ul>


We believe Tencent's inclusion in the US DoD CMC List and removal from USTR's NML are both non-events in the long run but not in the short run;
Latest data in holiday travel, parcel volume and home sales painted robust start in 2025, but unstable equity market posts a looming threat;
NetEase's newly released games were well-received and above our expectations. New game pipeline also brightens outlook.


Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>Inclusion of smartphone/tablet/smartwatch to trade-in subsidy will drive high single digit incremental growth for JD and Xiaomi, low single digit incremental growth for Alibaba in 2025;</li>
<li>New Year's Day transportation volume down, hotel consumption up, constituting a decent performance for a shorter holiday vs. last year. This bodes well for tourism for Chinese New Year; </li>
<li>China stepped up its signaling effort to Trump Administration that trade war measures will be retaliated. This week China added LFP battery technology to its own entity list.</li>
</ul>


Inclusion of smartphone/tablet/smartwatch to trade-in subsidy will drive high single digit incremental growth for JD and Xiaomi, low single digit incremental growth for Alibaba in 2025;
New Year's Day transportation volume down, hotel consumption up, constituting a decent performance for a shorter holiday vs. last year. This bodes well for tourism for Chinese New Year; 
China stepped up its signaling effort to Trump Administration that trade war measures will be retaliated. This week China added LFP battery technology to its own entity list.


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

<ul>
<li>In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns</li>
<li>In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business</li>
<li>In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing</li>
</ul>


In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns
In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business
In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing


Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker: Fight For Parcel Volume Share Heated Up in Q424 (January 2025)

Although Chinese domestic express pricing has moderated in recent months, the main players in this sector continue to battle one another for...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

​Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (1/2025): Xiaomi, JD, BABA, TRIP, ATAT, CATL, BYD, BEKE, Luckin, BZ

​Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Inclusion of smartphones in trade-in subsidy boosts growth for JD and Xiaomi, while China signals retaliation in trade war with US. Good signs for...