Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The four China-listed express companies reported divergent March volume, price trends</li>
<li>It appears March and Q126 volume growth remained soft, but ASPs mostly improved Y/Y</li>
<li>STO Express, aligned with Alibaba and CaiNiao, showed the strangest March / Q126 data</li>
</ul>


The four China-listed express companies reported divergent March volume, price trends
It appears March and Q126 volume growth remained soft, but ASPs mostly improved Y/Y
STO Express, aligned with Alibaba and CaiNiao, showed the strangest March / Q126 data


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March and Q126 Data From Four China-Listed Firms? All Over the Map

<ul>
<li>In FY25, for the first time, all of J &amp; T's reporting segments were profitable (Adj EBITDA)</li>
<li>Revenue growth and margin expansion both accelerated in H225 vs H125</li>
<li>Margin expansion in most segments offset lower China margins in FY25</li>
</ul>


In FY25, for the first time, all of J &amp; T's reporting segments were profitable (Adj EBITDA)
Revenue growth and margin expansion both accelerated in H225 vs H125
Margin expansion in most segments offset lower China margins in FY25


Solid FY25 Results from J & T Global Express | All Lines of Business Profitable

<ul>
<li>February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume</li>
<li>In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%</li>
<li>Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context</li>
</ul>


February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume
In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%
Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25</li>
<li>ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns</li>
</ul>


Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y
FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25
ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns


ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

<ul>
<li>Solid momentum: the pace of revenue growth slowed in Q425, but still reached 21.9% Y/Y</li>
<li>Owing to poor cost control, Q425 margins fell again, though pace of declines eased</li>
<li>Sigh of relief? Even after Friday's 23% surge, JD Logistics' shares down ~4% vs a year ago</li>
</ul>


Solid momentum: the pace of revenue growth slowed in Q425, but still reached 21.9% Y/Y
Owing to poor cost control, Q425 margins fell again, though pace of declines eased
Sigh of relief? Even after Friday's 23% surge, JD Logistics' shares down ~4% vs a year ago


JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March and Q126 Data From Four China-Listed Firms? All Over the Map

The four China-listed express companies reported oddly divergent numbers again in March. Overall, it appears parcel volume for this group grew at...

Tracking Traffic

Solid FY25 Results from J & T Global Express | All Lines of Business Profitable

J & T Global Express reported a solid set of FY25 results earlier this week. We admit we were surprised to see New Markets and X-Border both turn...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

Combined January-February parcel volume grew by <8%, continuing the trend of sub-10% growth seen in Q425. Under these conditions it will be...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

On March 17 ZTO reported Q425 results that showed a steep decline in profitability, and a possible shift to higher rates of returns to shareholders

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

Shares jumped by 23% last Friday after the company disclosed Q425 results that showed solid top-line results but still no end to declining core...

Tracking Traffic

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