Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).</p>
<p><strong>The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. </strong>The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.</p>
<p><strong>The Inventory Drawdown. </strong>Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.</p>
<p><strong>The Insatiable Demand. </strong>The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.</p>
<p><strong>The Aggressive Developers. </strong>The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;"><strong>Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/144/original/image_45072834061624549646155.png?1624549646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215144"></figure>
<p>Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Related Insights</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-financials-silver-linings-playbook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53013" rel="noopener">China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-operation-twist-the-deposit-version" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53435" rel="noopener">China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-ppi-peaks-while-cpi-eases-tightening-fears" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52778" rel="noopener">China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-exports-disappoint-but-it-s-still-early-in-the-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52728" rel="noopener">China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game</a> </li>
</ul>

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.



Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)




Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis




Related Insights


China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook 

Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 

China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version 

China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 

China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 

China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 


China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<p>The Hong Kong government announced a new ad valorem stamp duty, or AVD, late on Nov. 4. Effective Nov. 5, except for first-time homebuyers who are Hong Kong residents, homebuyers are subjected to a new AVD of 15%. Thus, Hong Kong residents who are not first-time homebuyers are subject to an AVD of 15%, replacing a previous AVD scale ranging from 1.5% to 8.5%. Nonresidents are subject to the new AVD of 15% in addition to an existing Buyer’s Stamp Duty, or BSD, of 15%. First-time homebuyers who are Hong Kong residents are subject to an AVD ranging from 0% to 4.25% based on the existing scale, unchanged from before.</p><p>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1">Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)</a>, or SHKP, is going to be most affected, given its large exposure to residential properties as well as its status as a proxy for the sector. We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22650" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22650:1">Cheung Kong Property Holding (1113 HK)</a>, or CKP, should be less affected, as it has aggressively sold down its residential inventories, while being very selective in land acquisitions in recent years. For both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/376" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1">Henderson Land Development (12 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1">Kerry Properties Ltd (683 HK)</a>, the impact on our fair value estimates is expected to be minor.</p><p><em>Analyst: Phillip Zhong</em></p>

The Hong Kong government announced a new ad valorem stamp duty, or AVD, late on Nov. 4. Effective Nov. 5, except for first-time homebuyers who are Hong Kong residents, homebuyers are subjected to a new AVD of 15%. Thus, Hong Kong residents who are not first-time homebuyers are subject to an AVD of 15%, replacing a previous AVD scale ranging from 1.5% to 8.5%. Nonresidents are subject to the new AVD of 15% in addition to an existing Buyer’s Stamp Duty, or BSD, of 15%. First-time homebuyers who are Hong Kong residents are subject to an AVD ranging from 0% to 4.25% based on the existing scale, unchanged from before.We believe Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK), or SHKP, is going to be most affected, given its large exposure to residential properties as well as its status as a proxy for the sector. We believe Cheung Kong Property Holding (1113 HK), or CKP, should be less affected, as it has aggressively sold down its residential inventories, while being very selective in land acquisitions in recent years. For both Henderson Land Development (12 HK) and Kerry Properties Ltd (683 HK), the impact on our fair value estimates is expected to be minor.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

New Stamp Duty Negative on Transaction Volume in the NearTerm

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Wednesday 7 September 2016</p><p><strong>Rotation plays in Asia </strong></p><div>To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/F6RFeLLyfu" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/F6RFeLLyfu</a> 6:29 min.</div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/012/922/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1473237558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="12922"></figure><div class="content-caption">Asia stock rotation webcast</div>
<p>Action point in Taiwan - 9,200 was our pivot risk point for our 9,033 pair short which was cleared calling for cutting this position. </p>
</div><div>TSMC - 180 was our risk point for stopping out our 177.50 short (our short pair bet). Above 185 would constitute a parabolic breakout. Don't want to miss a fade here thus watching 185 which is…</div>

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 7 September 2016Rotation plays in Asia To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/F6RFeLLyfu 6:29 min.
Asia stock rotation webcast
Action point in Taiwan - 9,200 was our pivot risk point for our 9,033 pair short which was cleared calling for cutting this position. 
TSMC - 180 was our risk point for stopping out our 177.50 short (our short pair bet). Above 185 would constitute a parabolic breakout. Don't want to miss a fade here thus watching 185 which is…

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

<p>On March 31, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal largely upheld the findings of the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) against Moody’sInvestors Service. Moody’s has received a public reprimand and an HK$11 million (S$1.9 million) fine for various failings related to a report issued in July of 2011 that searched for “red flags” on various issues for a number of Chinese companies. We, like many others in financial markets across the region, are perplexed both with the SFC’s prosecution of Moody’s and the tribunal’s decision. While the SFC probably feels that it has scored a victory for the market integrity of Hong Kong, it has instead stunted the development of the offshore debt market for Chinese companies,misallocated its own enforcement resources and, intentionally or not, let itself be seen as responding to negative commentary on companies that issue securities in Hong Kong.</p>

On March 31, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal largely upheld the findings of the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) against Moody’sInvestors Service. Moody’s has received a public reprimand and an HK$11 million (S$1.9 million) fine for various failings related to a report issued in July of 2011 that searched for “red flags” on various issues for a number of Chinese companies. We, like many others in financial markets across the region, are perplexed both with the SFC’s prosecution of Moody’s and the tribunal’s decision. While the SFC probably feels that it has scored a victory for the market integrity of Hong Kong, it has instead stunted the development of the offshore debt market for Chinese companies,misallocated its own enforcement resources and, intentionally or not, let itself be seen as responding to negative commentary on companies that issue securities in Hong Kong.

<p>I have had the highest respect of SFC  but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with the controversial lawsuit by the regulator SFC in HK against the rating agency Moody's for their piece on China.</p><p>Lawsuit come in just in time for the movie "10 Years" to achieve the top Movie Award-maybe the producers should have another segment in the Movie about Hong Kong's days as an international financial centre in the past to now a Chinese…</p>

I have had the highest respect of SFC  but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with the controversial lawsuit by the regulator SFC in HK against the rating agency Moody's for their piece on China.Lawsuit come in just in time for the movie "10 Years" to achieve the top Movie Award-maybe the producers should have another segment in the Movie about Hong Kong's days as an international financial centre in the past to now a Chinese…

Moody's Vs SFC - A Dark Day for Hong Kong?

Hong Kong

Yuexiu Property is a comprehensive real estate developer engaged in property development, investment, and management across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company develops and sells residential properties, operates and leases commercial spaces, and provides property management services. Headquartered in Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, it was established in 1983.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Housing FAI in May continued a secular trend that may make or break China's recovery. Inventory drawdowns may afford developers some breathing...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

New Stamp Duty Negative on Transaction Volume in the NearTerm

The Hong Kong government announced a new ad valorem stamp duty, or AVD, late on Nov. 4. Effective Nov. 5, except for first-time homebuyers who are...

Morningstar, Inc.

Asia Rotation Picks

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 7 September 2016Rotation plays in Asia To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/F6RFeLLyfu 6:29...

Thomas Schroeder

Hong Kong Beats Moody's but Loses Big

On March 31, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal largely upheld the findings of the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) against...

Tan Chin-Hwee

Moody's Vs SFC - A Dark Day for Hong Kong?

I have had the highest respect of SFC but it may be a dark day for those who engage in the practice of financial research and due diligence with...

Tan Chin-Hwee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)