Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust / Credit

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT</li>
<li>UST yields rose 1-2 bps yesterday, with limited major catalysts ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance later this week. The yield on the 2Y UST inched up 1 bp to 3.77%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.33%.</li>
<li>Equities were flat, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq stable at 6,449 and 21,630, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT
UST yields rose 1-2 bps yesterday, with limited major catalysts ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance later this week. The yield on the 2Y UST inched up 1 bp to 3.77%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.33%.
Equities were flat, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq stable at 6,449 and 21,630, respectively.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals / Index Rebalance

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)

<ul>
<li>We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.</li>
<li>The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).</li>
<li>This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%</li>
</ul>


The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.
The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).
This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%


ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT, Cikarang Listrindo, Nickel Industries</li>
<li>In the US, the import price index rose 0.4% m-o-m (0.0% e / 0.4% revised p) in February. Separately, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.3% revised p), with capacity utilisation up at 78.2% (77.8% e / 77.7% revised p).</li>
<li>Meanwhile, housing starts grew 11.2% m-o-m (1.4% e / -11.5% p) in February to 1.50 mn units, rebounding from the decline in January, which had been driven by cold weather. The February (preliminary) building permits fell 1.2% m-o-m (-1.4% e / -0.6% p) to 1.46 mn units.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT, Cikarang Listrindo, Nickel Industries
In the US, the import price index rose 0.4% m-o-m (0.0% e / 0.4% revised p) in February. Separately, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.3% revised p), with capacity utilisation up at 78.2% (77.8% e / 77.7% revised p).
Meanwhile, housing starts grew 11.2% m-o-m (1.4% e / -11.5% p) in February to 1.50 mn units, rebounding from the decline in January, which had been driven by cold weather. The February (preliminary) building permits fell 1.2% m-o-m (-1.4% e / -0.6% p) to 1.46 mn units.


Hong Kong

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust is a Hong Kong-listed real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the leasing of commercial properties in mainland China. Its portfolio includes Grade-A offices, commercial complexes, retail businesses, hotels, serviced apartments, and professional clothing markets. The company is headquartered in Wanchai, Hong Kong, and was incorporated in 1997.

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Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT UST yields rose 1-2 bps...

Lucror Analytics

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

The forecast adds to the index and Stock Connect are up 9.7% on average this month while the forecast deletes from the index and Stock Connect are...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

There could be 55 changes for the HSCI in September. That could result in 46 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have...

Brian Freitas

ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

This is a done deal, helped by irrevocables and the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross...

Arun George

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT, Cikarang Listrindo, Nickel...

Lucror Analytics

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