Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2026.</li>
<li>We expect two ADDs and two DELs for December 2026. We also estimate there to be ~US$118mn in one-way flows including the effects of capping.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2026.
We expect two ADDs and two DELs for December 2026. We also estimate there to be ~US$118mn in one-way flows including the effects of capping.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's March performance was -11.25%, compared with -7.75% for the benchmark index.  The Hang Seng Index lost 6.92% for the month.</li>
<li>Performance was hurt by its exposure to the oil equipment and fertilizer sectors, which normally benefit from higher energy prices. China imposed price and export restrictions in the energy sector.</li>
<li>At the end of March, we positioned the portfolio to better cope with the difficulties in China's economy and in the global market due to persistently high energy prices.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's March performance was -11.25%, compared with -7.75% for the benchmark index.  The Hang Seng Index lost 6.92% for the month.
Performance was hurt by its exposure to the oil equipment and fertilizer sectors, which normally benefit from higher energy prices. China imposed price and export restrictions in the energy sector.
At the end of March, we positioned the portfolio to better cope with the difficulties in China's economy and in the global market due to persistently high energy prices.


<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 0.46 % in February resulting in a 2.99% underperformance to its benchmark. The portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 53% to 75% since inception 10/1/24.</li>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha has generated 63% of its return from alpha and has a Sharpe ratio of 1.71 since inception. The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 24%.</li>
<li>At the end of February, we reduced positions in the technology sector and added positions in the energy and building materials sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 0.46 % in February resulting in a 2.99% underperformance to its benchmark. The portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 53% to 75% since inception 10/1/24.
Hong Kong Alpha has generated 63% of its return from alpha and has a Sharpe ratio of 1.71 since inception. The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 24%.
At the end of February, we reduced positions in the technology sector and added positions in the energy and building materials sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (February 2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 2nd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 2nd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 2nd): HSBC, Tencent, Bidu

<ul>
<li>The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.</li>
<li>China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.
</li>
</ul>


The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.
China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

China

Yum China operates and franchises a diverse portfolio of restaurant brands across the People's Republic of China, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang. The company also provides online food delivery services. Yum China Holdings, Inc. was spun off from Yum! Brands in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Yum China (9987 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Final Ranks; Two ADDs/DELs Likely; One Change to Expectation

Expected DELs Postal Savings Bank (1658 HK) and Shenzhou International (2313 HK) could have 1.7x ADV (~US$45mn) and 0.7x ADV to sell (~US$21mn)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (March 2026)

Guoquan Food announced that management sold a 4.74% stake at a discounted price of $3.8 to boost the liquidity of the shares. We viewed the move...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (February 2026)

The war, which launched at the beginning of the month, is now into its second week and its economic effects are being reflected in global markets....

David Mudd

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 2nd): HSBC, Tencent, Bidu

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were HSBC (5 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding...

David Mudd

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