Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in low-value non-EU parcels • Dutch retail sales | consumer demand remained resilient in July • Dutch CPI | rose to 3.3% YoY in August</li></ul>

In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in low-value non-EU parcels • Dutch retail sales | consumer demand remained resilient in July • Dutch CPI | rose to 3.3% YoY in August

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$48.56 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately US$1.7 billion. The shares will begin trading on 1 September.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248212" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248735" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-625-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:264754" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The retail and international subscription rates are materially below the median for large listings since 2024. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price, leaving no upside for investors.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) priced its IPO at HK$48.56 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately US$1.7 billion. The shares will begin trading on 1 September.
The IPO was discussed in SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case, SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case and SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The retail and international subscription rates are materially below the median for large listings since 2024. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price, leaving no upside for investors.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a>, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248212" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248735" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:252773" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look</a> </li>
<li>I have revised lower my forecasts following the 1H trading update. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price range, leaving little to no upside for investors. </li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion.
I discussed the IPO in SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case, SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case and SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look 
I have revised lower my forecasts following the 1H trading update. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price range, leaving little to no upside for investors. 


SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul><li>In this edition: • a.s.r. Nederland | solid 1H26; Aegon integration completed, momentum intact • ING | reduces stake in TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) • InPost | EU clearance for the proposed takeover of InPost by the consortium • Alfen | reiterates FY26 as well as FY27 guidance • TomTom | Orbis Maps selected by Cedar Electronics • E-commerce & Logistics | Amazon brings AWD to Europe</li></ul>

In this edition: • a.s.r. Nederland | solid 1H26; Aegon integration completed, momentum intact • ING | reduces stake in TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) • InPost | EU clearance for the proposed takeover of InPost by the consortium • Alfen | reiterates FY26 as well as FY27 guidance • TomTom | Orbis Maps selected by Cedar Electronics • E-commerce & Logistics | Amazon brings AWD to Europe

Germany

Zalando SE provides online sale of fashion accessories. The Company offers clothing, sports products, shoes, bags, and other accessories for men, women, and children. Zalando markets its products worldwide.

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Zalando (ZAL GR)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Fugro NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Fugro | nominates Mr. Emiel Jongerius as new CFO • E-commerce & Logistics | French customs data show 30-40% drop in...

The IDEA!

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

SHEIN priced its IPO at HK$48.56 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately US$1.7 billion. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price,...

Arun George

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion. In this note, I discuss valuation.

Arun George

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 19 August (asr NL | ING | InPost | Alfen | TomTom | E-com & Logistics)

In this edition: • a.s.r. Nederland | solid 1H26; Aegon integration completed, momentum intact • ING | reduces stake in TMBThanachart Bank...

The IDEA!

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