IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a> has entered into a definitive merger agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%. </li>
<li>The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr's shareholders and Geely's independent shareholders.  </li>
<li>The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium. </li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%. 
The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr's shareholders and Geely's independent shareholders.  
The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium. 


ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The combined Zeekr (ZK)/Lynk reported C1Q25 top line 11% below our estimates, due to sharper than expected price erosions, </li>
<li>Despite ASP missing our estimates by 6.3% for ZK and 16% for Lynk, ZK managed to beat our gross margin estimate by 3.7ppt and consensus by 4.0ppt, </li>
<li>With Geely and related persons controlling 78% of ZK and Geely's H-share stock rising in value, we see the chance for the go-private deal to succeed as high. </li>
</ul>


The combined Zeekr (ZK)/Lynk reported C1Q25 top line 11% below our estimates, due to sharper than expected price erosions, 
Despite ASP missing our estimates by 6.3% for ZK and 16% for Lynk, ZK managed to beat our gross margin estimate by 3.7ppt and consensus by 4.0ppt, 
With Geely and related persons controlling 78% of ZK and Geely's H-share stock rising in value, we see the chance for the go-private deal to succeed as high. 


[Zeekr Group (ZK US, BUY, TP US$35) TP Change]: Buy in to Geely Doesn’t Help Either’s Competency

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, China’s second-largest carmaker, has made an non-binding proposal for 65.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">Zeekr (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. </li>
<li>Geely is offering US$25.66/ADS, a paltry 13.6% premium. Or 12.3 newly issued shares. The Offer appears opportunistic after Zeekr's 20% decline YTD (pre-Offer) in response to Trump tariffs.</li>
<li>
Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is timing. Trading tight at a 1.9% gross spread.</li>
</ul>



Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, has made an non-binding proposal for 65.7%-held Zeekr (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. 
Geely is offering US$25.66/ADS, a paltry 13.6% premium. Or 12.3 newly issued shares. The Offer appears opportunistic after Zeekr's 20% decline YTD (pre-Offer) in response to Trump tariffs.

Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is timing. Trading tight at a 1.9% gross spread.


Zeekr (ZK US): Minorities Have Limited Options Amid Geely's Low-Balled Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, the controlling shareholder, disclosed a cash or scrip non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a> at US$25.66 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares.</li>
<li>While the offer is 22.2% above the IPO price, it is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and average sell-side price targets. </li>
<li>The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. </li>
</ul>



Geely Auto (175 HK), the controlling shareholder, disclosed a cash or scrip non-binding proposal for ZEEKR (ZK US) at US$25.66 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares.
While the offer is 22.2% above the IPO price, it is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and average sell-side price targets. 
The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. 


ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

United States

ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, principally engages in commercialization and sales of electric vehicles and battery, and provision of automotive related research and development services. ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding serves customers worldwide.

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ZEEKR (ZK US)

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely independent vote is low risk...

Arun George

[Zeekr Group (ZK US, BUY, TP US$35) TP Change]: Buy in to Geely Doesn’t Help Either’s Competency

Zeekr/Lynk's C1Q25 revenue fell 11% below estimates due to price erosions, but Zeekr beat gross margin estimates, increasing chance of successful...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zeekr (ZK US): Minorities Have Limited Options Amid Geely's Low-Balled Offer

Li Shufu has the necessary votes. Should a definitive agreement be inked, this should be done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China...

David Blennerhassett

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS

The offer is light. The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the...

Arun George

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

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ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely independent vote is low risk...

Arun George

[Zeekr Group (ZK US, BUY, TP US$35) TP Change]: Buy in to Geely Doesn’t Help Either’s Competency

​Zeekr/Lynk's C1Q25 revenue fell 11% below estimates due to price erosions, but Zeekr beat gross margin estimates, increasing chance of successful...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zeekr (ZK US): Minorities Have Limited Options Amid Geely's Low-Balled Offer

Li Shufu has the necessary votes. Should a definitive agreement be inked, this should be done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China...

David Blennerhassett

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS

The offer is light. The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the...

Arun George

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Zeekr/Lynk's C1Q25 revenue fell 11% below estimates due to price erosions, but Zeekr beat gross margin estimates, increasing chance of successful...