Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pMRYOjIIzxxU1G_J90dNvf_zUKNuU_LYOhnWrtM5O5I/edit?tab=t.0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a> is here. <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/13W_8_9qyOHx2RIOYF2rGKEyHmPDO9eO5-nE8Pa5IADk/edit?tab=t.0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a> here by Qwen;</li>
<li>XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;</li>
<li>CATL's JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.</li>
</ul>


A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese link is here. English here by Qwen;
XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;
CATL's JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

<ul>
<li>China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;</li>
<li>China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;</li>
<li>ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.</li>
</ul>


China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;
China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;
ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.


Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;</li>
<li>This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;</li>
<li>We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.</li>
</ul>


US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;
This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;
We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.


Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

<ul>
<li>
Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;</li>
<li>
EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;</li>
<li>
SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...</li>
</ul>



Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;

EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;

SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

United States

ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, principally engages in commercialization and sales of electric vehicles and battery, and provision of automotive related research and development services. ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding serves customers worldwide.

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ZEEKR (ZK US)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

​Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

​US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

​China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...