External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>According to the preliminary data from CME, China’s excavator sales dropped 26% YoY to ~13.2k units.</li><li>Sales in China remained weak with an estimated 49% YoY decline to 4.7k units in Jul, which is not a surprise given the lack of powerful stimulus policies.</li><li>Export, which had been strong since 2020, however, starts to see a loss of momentum. Export volume is expected to drop 2% YoY to 8.5k units in Jul, according to CME. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

According to the preliminary data from CME, China’s excavator sales dropped 26% YoY to ~13.2k units.Sales in China remained weak with an estimated 49% YoY decline to 4.7k units in Jul, which is not a surprise given the lack of powerful stimulus policies.Export, which had been strong since 2020, however, starts to see a loss of momentum. Export volume is expected to drop 2% YoY to 8.5k units in Jul, according to CME. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery – Export of Excavator Running Out of Steam

<ul><li>We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of scale.</li><li>Apart from its products, we like the Company’s high self-discipline in costs and business expansion even as it is much more resourceful than before.</li><li>We project Li Auto’s 2Q23E revenue to more than triple YoY to RMB 27.9bn, as its sales volume beat guidance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of scale.Apart from its products, we like the Company’s high self-discipline in costs and business expansion even as it is much more resourceful than before.We project Li Auto’s 2Q23E revenue to more than triple YoY to RMB 27.9bn, as its sales volume beat guidance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

<ul><li>Following a rally since early Feb, we believe the market has already priced in the upcoming recovery of machinery demand.</li><li>We see little upside potential in the near term, as (1) the recovery could be more seasonal (MoM) than structural (YoY), with sales of excavator (proxy for the sector) likely falling short of expectation in Mar; (2) We expect the strong credit growth will only translate into a moderate recovery of excavator demand this year (+10% YoY in our industry assumption).</li><li>Therefore, we are selective in our universe, and prefer only AWP (the only type of machinery that stands out by achieving 15% YoY growth in Jan). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following a rally since early Feb, we believe the market has already priced in the upcoming recovery of machinery demand.We see little upside potential in the near term, as (1) the recovery could be more seasonal (MoM) than structural (YoY), with sales of excavator (proxy for the sector) likely falling short of expectation in Mar; (2) We expect the strong credit growth will only translate into a moderate recovery of excavator demand this year (+10% YoY in our industry assumption).Therefore, we are selective in our universe, and prefer only AWP (the only type of machinery that stands out by achieving 15% YoY growth in Jan). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery – Near-Term Recovery More Seasonal than Structural

<ul><li>We are turning more positive on the construction machinery &amp; heavy-duty truck (HDT) sector as we expect meaningful earnings recovery in 2023E (following the down-cycle since early 2021), underpinned by: (1) resilient overseas demand; (2) strong mining activities; (3) gradual reopening in China; (4) decline in freight rate and steel price.</li><li>Meanwhile, the supporting policies on property will serve as risk reduction factor for the sector.</li><li>Aerial work platform (AWP) is our most preferred subsector, followed by HDT, excavator and other machinery.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are turning more positive on the construction machinery &amp; heavy-duty truck (HDT) sector as we expect meaningful earnings recovery in 2023E (following the down-cycle since early 2021), underpinned by: (1) resilient overseas demand; (2) strong mining activities; (3) gradual reopening in China; (4) decline in freight rate and steel price.Meanwhile, the supporting policies on property will serve as risk reduction factor for the sector.Aerial work platform (AWP) is our most preferred subsector, followed by HDT, excavator and other machinery.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2023 Outlook

China

Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co Ltd designs and manufactures industrial lifts. The Company's main products include scissor lifts and boom lifts. Zhejiang Dingli distributes their products worldwide.

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Zhejiang Dingli Machinery L (603338 CH)

China Construction Machinery – Export of Excavator Running Out of Steam

Sales in China remained weak with an estimated 49% YoY decline to 4.7k units in Jul, which is not a surprise given the lack of powerful stimulus...

CMB International

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of...

CMB International

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

China Construction Machinery – Near-Term Recovery More Seasonal than Structural

Following a rally since early Feb, we believe the market has already priced in the upcoming recovery of machinery demand.

CMB International

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2023 Outlook

We are turning more positive on the construction machinery & heavy-duty truck (HDT) sector as we expect meaningful earnings recovery in 2023E...

CMB International

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