CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 62%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 62%


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.</li>
<li>Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.</li>
<li>From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.</li>
</ul>


The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.
Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.
From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.


What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. </li>
<li>We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.</li>
<li>We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.</li>
</ul>


If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. 
We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.
We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.


Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

<ul>
<li>The energy/food crisis and the volatility of exchange rates due to Russia-Ukraine war will increase the cost of Chinese enterprises producing API, leading to API price hike expectation.</li>
<li>Inadequate API production in Europe would create huge demand, offering a good opportunity for Chinese API companies to achieve innovation, transformation, upgrading, and help international companies to realize capacity transfer.</li>
<li>The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)/Blinken’s speech/complex Sino-US relationship could weigh on bullish sentiment. The point is if you violate the laws of economics, it will bite you back.</li>
</ul>


The energy/food crisis and the volatility of exchange rates due to Russia-Ukraine war will increase the cost of Chinese enterprises producing API, leading to API price hike expectation.
Inadequate API production in Europe would create huge demand, offering a good opportunity for Chinese API companies to achieve innovation, transformation, upgrading, and help international companies to realize capacity transfer.
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)/Blinken’s speech/complex Sino-US relationship could weigh on bullish sentiment. The point is if you violate the laws of economics, it will bite you back.


Geopolitical Conflicts and War: The Impact on China API Industry

Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadong-medicine-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18522:1" rel="noopener">Huadong Medicine (000963 CH)</a>’s traditional core businesses are facing great pressure due to VBP and medical insurance negotiation, which is difficult for Huadong to establish its long-term core competitiveness.</li>
<li>Despite the fierce competition in medical cosmetology industry, the entry of medical cosmetology equipment field is a wise step, helping Huadong form the most complete layout among competitors.</li>
<li>In terms of whether Huangdong could achieve business transformation successfully, the future performance of medical cosmetology business is the key breakthrough point.</li>
</ul>



Huadong Medicine (000963 CH)’s traditional core businesses are facing great pressure due to VBP and medical insurance negotiation, which is difficult for Huadong to establish its long-term core competitiveness.
Despite the fierce competition in medical cosmetology industry, the entry of medical cosmetology equipment field is a wise step, helping Huadong form the most complete layout among competitors.
In terms of whether Huangdong could achieve business transformation successfully, the future performance of medical cosmetology business is the key breakthrough point.


Huadong Medicine Co Ltd (000963.CH) - The Medical Cosmetology Business Is the Key Breakthrough Point

China

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include anti-tumor, anti-parasite, cardiovascular, and anti-infection drugs.

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. (600267 CH)

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Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. (600267 CH)

The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 34

We highlight 10 China A stocks that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Trump successfully elected as the US President. His reform in healthcare is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

Pfizer’s China business faces challenges due to VBP/NRDL negotiation and potential further deterioration of Sino-US relations. Together with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Geopolitical Conflicts and War: The Impact on China API Industry

Energy/food crisis due to war will increase API cost, creating opportunity for China API. For IPEF/Blinken’s speech, politics is always a tool to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Huadong Medicine Co Ltd (000963.CH) - The Medical Cosmetology Business Is the Key Breakthrough Point

We analyzed the logic of performance decline in terms of Huadong's core business.But the entry of medical cosmetology equipment field is a wise...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)