HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have discovered something interesting from the innovative drug evaluations disclosed by the NMPA over the years. It’s recommended to establish rational expectations for the investment return of biopharmaceutical industry.</li>
<li>We analyzed the different situations faced by Biotech in IPO/M&amp;A process, so as to help investors make rational judgments. R&amp;D team is likely to be cut regardless of the circumstances.</li>
<li>We updated views on Huadong. Its old businesses dragged down valuation. It may need to wait until Huadong delivers better-than-expected sales/profit growth in weight-loss management business before further boosting valuation.</li>
</ul>


We have discovered something interesting from the innovative drug evaluations disclosed by the NMPA over the years. It’s recommended to establish rational expectations for the investment return of biopharmaceutical industry.
We analyzed the different situations faced by Biotech in IPO/M&amp;A process, so as to help investors make rational judgments. R&amp;D team is likely to be cut regardless of the circumstances.
We updated views on Huadong. Its old businesses dragged down valuation. It may need to wait until Huadong delivers better-than-expected sales/profit growth in weight-loss management business before further boosting valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) - Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. </li>
<li>Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.</li>
<li>The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure - pricing will be key.</li>
</ul>


The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. 
Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.
The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure - pricing will be key.


<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Equity Capital Markets

Qyuns Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.</li>
<li>Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.</li>
<li>Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.</li>
</ul>


The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.
Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.
Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.


Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited / Equity Capital Markets

The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited

<ul>
<li>Last year, United Lab mainly relied on antibiotics to make money. However, after the pandemic is under control, antibiotic sales may decline. United Lab’s performance could be under pressure.</li>
<li>As a late comer, sales of United Lab’s weight management products could be lower than expected in the future under increasing competition. The veterinary drugs business requires time to cultivate.</li>
<li>RMB12 billion market value of United Lab has priced in all positive factors.There could be a pullback in valuation. RMB6 billion market value is a safe place to go long.</li>
</ul>


Last year, United Lab mainly relied on antibiotics to make money. However, after the pandemic is under control, antibiotic sales may decline. United Lab’s performance could be under pressure.
As a late comer, sales of United Lab’s weight management products could be lower than expected in the future under increasing competition. The veterinary drugs business requires time to cultivate.
RMB12 billion market value of United Lab has priced in all positive factors.There could be a pullback in valuation. RMB6 billion market value is a safe place to go long.


United Laboratories International Holdings Placement (3933.HK) - Valuation Pullback Seems Inevitable

China

Huadong Medicine Co., Ltd. wholesales and retails medicines, pharmaceutical preparations, biological products, and medical instruments.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures antibiotic medicines and biochemical products.

Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A (000963 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) - Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

It’s advised to establish rational expectation for Biotech's investment return. R&D team will be cut eventually during M&A/IPO. Huadong's valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia

First-gen GLP-1 impact may fall short of hype, demand still strong. Next-gen drugs promise better results, tolerance, price. Expect margin pressure...

Avien Pillay

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Qyuns’s pipeline lacks competitiveness, facing fierce competition.Together with bleak internationalization outlook, peak sales have obvious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

United Laboratories International Holdings Placement (3933.HK) - Valuation Pullback Seems Inevitable

United Lab is facing a performance decline when the dividend period of the pandemic has subsided. Weight management/veterinary drug businesses have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang