IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

EcoPro Materials / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a> is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$470 million in a KRX IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ecopro-materials-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114725" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ecopro-materials-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114976" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$470 million in a KRX IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case and EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we would pass on the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a> is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$477 million in a KRX IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ecopro-materials-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114725" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on weakening sector market sentiment, margin pressure likely to persist, cash burn, elevated leverage and high related-party transactions.</li>
</ul>



EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$477 million in a KRX IPO.
In EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on weakening sector market sentiment, margin pressure likely to persist, cash burn, elevated leverage and high related-party transactions.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a> is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$500 million in a KRX IPO.  </li>
<li>EcoPro Materials is offering 14.5 million shares at an IPO price range of KRW36,200-46,000 per share. Book building runs from 30 October to 3 November, with pricing on 7 November.  </li>
<li>The bull case rests on attractive addressable markets, aggressive production capacity expansion, ambition to be the leading non-Chinese player, strong revenue growth and improving cash conversion cycle. </li>
</ul>



EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$500 million in a KRX IPO.  
EcoPro Materials is offering 14.5 million shares at an IPO price range of KRW36,200-46,000 per share. Book building runs from 30 October to 3 November, with pricing on 7 November.  
The bull case rests on attractive addressable markets, aggressive production capacity expansion, ambition to be the leading non-Chinese player, strong revenue growth and improving cash conversion cycle. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one add and two deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the September rebalance. Plus there are free float and capping changes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 11.1% and will result in a one-way trade of US$58m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5 days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-huayou-cobalt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25048:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799 CH)</a> are surprises.</li>
</ul>


There is one add and two deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the September rebalance. Plus there are free float and capping changes.
One way turnover is estimated at 11.1% and will result in a one-way trade of US$58m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5 days of ADV to trade.
The inclusion of Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and deletion of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799 CH) are surprises.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

<ul>
<li>The changes for the next rebalance will use closing prices from 31 August, will be announced after the close on 8 September with implementation at the close on 15 September.</li>
<li>One stock is very close to the 85% cumulative market cap inclusion threshold, while there are two stocks that are near the 98% cumulative market cap deletion threshold.</li>
<li>With one inclusion and capping changes, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance will be 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$20m. That could change over the next week.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the next rebalance will use closing prices from 31 August, will be announced after the close on 8 September with implementation at the close on 15 September.
One stock is very close to the 85% cumulative market cap inclusion threshold, while there are two stocks that are near the 98% cumulative market cap deletion threshold.
With one inclusion and capping changes, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance will be 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$20m. That could change over the next week.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go

China

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Company Ltd. manufactures, processes, and distributes battery materials and new cobalt materials. The Company produces cathode materials, cobalt products, copper products, nickel products, nickel cobalt manganese hydroxide, and lithium products. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt conducts businesses in China.

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Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799 CH)

EcoPro Materials IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we...

Arun George

EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on weakening sector market sentiment, margin pressure likely to persist, cash burn, elevated leverage and high related-party...

Arun George

EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on attractive addressable markets, aggressive production capacity expansion, ambition to be the leading non-Chinese player,...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

One add, two deletes, float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover estimated at 11.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$58m. There...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go

There could be 1 inclusion in September while there are 2 stocks close to the deletion threshold. Lake Resources is also a potential deletion from...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EcoPro Materials IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we...

Arun George

EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on weakening sector market sentiment, margin pressure likely to persist, cash burn, elevated leverage and high related-party...

Arun George

EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on attractive addressable markets, aggressive production capacity expansion, ambition to be the leading non-Chinese player,...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

One add, two deletes, float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover estimated at 11.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$58m. There...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go

There could be 1 inclusion in September while there are 2 stocks close to the deletion threshold. Lake Resources is also a potential deletion from...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go