IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 9 March, the vote on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> comfortably passed. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voyah-automobile-technology-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47617:1" rel="noopener">VOYAH Automobile Technology Company (7489 HK)</a> is set to be listed on 19 March. At the Dongfeng's last close price of HK$9.54, the implied value of VOYAH is HK$8.05. </li>
<li>Despite the market turmoil, VOYAH’s peers have fared well, up 7% since the vote. My VOYAH valuation range is HK$10.76 to HK$14.01, with a midpoint of HK$12.45.</li>
</ul>


On 9 March, the vote on the Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) comfortably passed. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.

VOYAH Automobile Technology Company (7489 HK) is set to be listed on 19 March. At the Dongfeng's last close price of HK$9.54, the implied value of VOYAH is HK$8.05. 
Despite the market turmoil, VOYAH’s peers have fared well, up 7% since the vote. My VOYAH valuation range is HK$10.76 to HK$14.01, with a midpoint of HK$12.45.


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Thoughts on VOYAH’s Listing on 19 March

<ul>
<li>The vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer is on 9 March. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.</li>
<li>Valuation uncertainty on the offer value has increased due to two recent developments – the material derating of peers and a significant falloff in VOYAH delivery growth rates in February.</li>
<li>While valuation uncertainty warrants caution, my low-case valuation of the offer is HK$9.87 (4.7% above last close), suggesting limited downside. My high-case valuation is HK$11.18. (18.6% above last close).  </li>
</ul>


The vote on Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer is on 9 March. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.
Valuation uncertainty on the offer value has increased due to two recent developments – the material derating of peers and a significant falloff in VOYAH delivery growth rates in February.
While valuation uncertainty warrants caution, my low-case valuation of the offer is HK$9.87 (4.7% above last close), suggesting limited downside. My high-case valuation is HK$11.18. (18.6% above last close).  


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Valuation Uncertainty Ahead of the Vote

<ul>
<li>The composite document and the updated VOYAH listing document for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer from Dongfeng Motor Corporation have been released. </li>
<li>The offer’s appraised value by Somerley (HK$10.93) and Altus (HK$11.37) has issues with the methodology. Nevertheless, my methodology, which aims to address these issues, suggests the valuations are justifiable. </li>
<li>The VOYAH listing document, which discloses the 2025 financials, points to strong fundamentals that lend further support to the valuation. The vote on 9 March remains low risk. </li>
</ul>


The composite document and the updated VOYAH listing document for the Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer from Dongfeng Motor Corporation have been released. 
The offer’s appraised value by Somerley (HK$10.93) and Altus (HK$11.37) has issues with the methodology. Nevertheless, my methodology, which aims to address these issues, suggests the valuations are justifiable. 
The VOYAH listing document, which discloses the 2025 financials, points to strong fundamentals that lend further support to the valuation. The vote on 9 March remains low risk. 


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Takeaways from the Composite Doc and VOYAH’s Listing Doc

<ul>
<li>Dongfeng Motor Corporation has satisfied the precondition related to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer. The offer comprises HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.</li>
<li>The composite document must be dispatched within 7 days. The shareholder vote remains low risk. The appraised value of HK$10.85 is the key point of debate.</li>
<li>The appraised value remains justifiable despite peers' derating. Based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.39-11.44 per H Share.</li>
</ul>


Dongfeng Motor Corporation has satisfied the precondition related to its Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer. The offer comprises HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.
The composite document must be dispatched within 7 days. The shareholder vote remains low risk. The appraised value of HK$10.85 is the key point of debate.
The appraised value remains justifiable despite peers' derating. Based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.39-11.44 per H Share.


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Precondition Satisfied

<ul>
<li>Four months after the offer was announced, Dongfeng Motor Corporation has satisfied the regulatory precondition related to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer.</li>
<li>The remaining precondition is approval from the CSRC and HKEx, both of which are low-risk. The appraised value of HK$10.85 is the key point of debate.   </li>
<li>The peers have since derated, which affects the appraised value. However, based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.51-11.55 per H Share.</li>
</ul>


Four months after the offer was announced, Dongfeng Motor Corporation has satisfied the regulatory precondition related to its Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer.
The remaining precondition is approval from the CSRC and HKEx, both of which are low-risk. The appraised value of HK$10.85 is the key point of debate.   
The peers have since derated, which affects the appraised value. However, based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.51-11.55 per H Share.


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

China

Leapmotor is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent electric vehicles (EVs), including sedans, SUVs, and microcars. The company also develops core EV components such as intelligent driving systems, electric drive assemblies, and battery systems. Founded in December 2015, Leapmotor is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Leapmotor (9863 HK)

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Thoughts on VOYAH’s Listing on 19 March

Despite the market turmoil, VOYAH’s peers have fared well, up 7% since the vote. My VOYAH midpoint valuation is HK$12.45. In comparison, at...

Arun George

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Valuation Uncertainty Ahead of the Vote

As expected, the scheme vote was comfortably passed. The last day of trading is tomorrow. VOYAH shares are expected to trade on 19 March. While...

Arun George

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Takeaways from the Composite Doc and VOYAH’s Listing Doc

The composite doc lists two appraised val. approaches that, despite issues, have justifiable valuations. VOYAH had a strong 2025. The vote remains...

Arun George

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The appraised value of HK$10.85 remains justifiable despite peers' derating. Based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.39...

Arun George

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

The appraised offer HK$10.85 value is the key debating point, particularly as peers have derated. However, based on several methodologies, I...

Arun George

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