Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dundee Precious Metals  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a>'s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.</li>
<li>Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.

Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)'s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IPO leaves upside on the table: Priced at HK$71.6/sh (~US$24.1bn EV), Zijin Gold lists at ~8× 2026E EV/EBITDA — in line with peers despite offering far stronger growth.</li>
<li>Fastest-Growing gold major challenger: Output set to rise ~20% CAGR to 2027E (2.1Moz), versus flat-to-low growth for Newmont, Barrick, and peers.</li>
<li>Fair value HK$95/sh (+33%): Base case target on 2026E EBITDA at 8× peer multiple; risks include gold price volatility, execution of Wassa/Sepon/Raygorodok ramps, and governance overhangs.</li>
</ul>


IPO leaves upside on the table: Priced at HK$71.6/sh (~US$24.1bn EV), Zijin Gold lists at ~8× 2026E EV/EBITDA — in line with peers despite offering far stronger growth.
Fastest-Growing gold major challenger: Output set to rise ~20% CAGR to 2027E (2.1Moz), versus flat-to-low growth for Newmont, Barrick, and peers.
Fair value HK$95/sh (+33%): Base case target on 2026E EBITDA at 8× peer multiple; risks include gold price volatility, execution of Wassa/Sepon/Raygorodok ramps, and governance overhangs.


Zijin Gold International IPO – Growth Premium at a Mid-Tier Price

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given the size of Mandi - relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grindr-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37106:1" rel="noopener">Grindr (GRND US)</a> Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. </li>
</ul>


Given the size of Mandi - relative to 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.

CATL (3750 HK)  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.
While Grindr (GRND US) Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>Aussie gold and copper explorer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gbm-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16326:1" rel="noopener">GBM Resources (GBZ AU)</a> has announced plans to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>GBM has entered a memorandum of understanding with its major shareholder, Wise Walkers Limited, which will fund all listing-related expenses - to be repaid upon a successful listing.</li>
<li>The listing is, ostensibly, to "broaden its investor base"; however <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s barnstorming IPO debut probably spurred on this development. </li>
</ul>


Aussie gold and copper explorer GBM Resources (GBZ AU) has announced plans to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
GBM has entered a memorandum of understanding with its major shareholder, Wise Walkers Limited, which will fund all listing-related expenses - to be repaid upon a successful listing.
The listing is, ostensibly, to "broaden its investor base"; however Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s barnstorming IPO debut probably spurred on this development. 


GBM Resources (GBZ AU)'s Proposed Secondary Listing In Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Zijin Gold is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining (ZM), located outside of China. Leveraging ZM’s competitive advantage in management of exploration, development and operation of low-grade and refractory resources, ZG has emerged as a global leading and market-oriented gold mining company, vertically integrated through the value chain.

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Zijin Gold (2259 HK)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

DPM Metals could be added in Dec, while Zijin Gold should miss inclusion. Recent stock moves over have shrunk the capping trade. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold International IPO – Growth Premium at a Mid-Tier Price

Zijin Gold IPO undervalued despite strong growth potential, fair value estimated at HK$95/sh (+33%) based on peer multiples and growth projections.

Rahul Jain

Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

GBM Resources (GBZ AU)'s Proposed Secondary Listing In Hong Kong

There is no specific/hard catalyst here. I don't have a strong conviction on the underlying ops. But kudos for exploring this avenue - there may...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

DPM Metals could be added in Dec, while Zijin Gold should miss inclusion. Recent stock moves over have shrunk the capping trade. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold International IPO – Growth Premium at a Mid-Tier Price

​Zijin Gold IPO undervalued despite strong growth potential, fair value estimated at HK$95/sh (+33%) based on peer multiples and growth projections.

Rahul Jain

Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

GBM Resources (GBZ AU)'s Proposed Secondary Listing In Hong Kong

There is no specific/hard catalyst here. I don't have a strong conviction on the underlying ops. But kudos for exploring this avenue - there may...

David Blennerhassett

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Zijin Gold IPO undervalued despite strong growth potential, fair value estimated at HK$95/sh (+33%) based on peer multiples and growth projections.