Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hino-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2144:1" rel="noopener">Hino (7205 JP)</a> a short or a long at ¥366/share? Suggest short, but also selling more as the stock goes up, and buying back the short on big dips.</li>
<li>A Bloomberg op-ed piece concludes it is time to move on from "from an archaic currency regime". That conclusion on the Hong Kong peg appears presumptuous. And uninformed.</li>
<li>A spin-off makes sense as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin (2899 HK)</a> capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However,  Zijin is trading at a single-digit NAV discount. Before any holding company discount.</li>
</ul>


Is Hino (7205 JP) a short or a long at ¥366/share? Suggest short, but also selling more as the stock goes up, and buying back the short on big dips.
A Bloomberg op-ed piece concludes it is time to move on from "from an archaic currency regime". That conclusion on the Hong Kong peg appears presumptuous. And uninformed.
A spin-off makes sense as Zijin (2899 HK) capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However,  Zijin is trading at a single-digit NAV discount. Before any holding company discount.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong's Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 19% by FY27, with EPS rising from CNY 0.51 to CNY 1.10, supported by operational efficiencies and a favorable gold price environment.</li>
<li>Shandong Gold aims for 70–80 tonnes of self-mined gold by 2027, with FY25–FY27 revenue projected to reach CNY118.8 billion at $3,400/oz gold price, driven by volume growth &amp; higher prices.</li>
<li>Commodity price volatility, geopolitical risks in international ventures (Argentina, Greece), and state ownership influence pose challenges to margins and shareholder value.</li>
</ul>


EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 19% by FY27, with EPS rising from CNY 0.51 to CNY 1.10, supported by operational efficiencies and a favorable gold price environment.
Shandong Gold aims for 70–80 tonnes of self-mined gold by 2027, with FY25–FY27 revenue projected to reach CNY118.8 billion at $3,400/oz gold price, driven by volume growth &amp; higher prices.
Commodity price volatility, geopolitical risks in international ventures (Argentina, Greece), and state ownership influence pose challenges to margins and shareholder value.


Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) - Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals</li>
<li>Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals
Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital


Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

<ul>
<li>A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.</li>
<li>Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.</li>
<li>Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.</li>
</ul>


A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.


Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

<ul>
<li>Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.</li>
<li>Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.</li>
<li>At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.</li>
</ul>


Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.
Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.
At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.


Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong's Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) - Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

Shandong Gold forecasts significant growth in revenue and EPS by 2027, but faces challenges from commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Rahul Jain

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

Kakula mining suspended due to seismic activity, Ivanhoe quadruples copper output, potential resolution by late Q3 2025 with 40%+ upside at...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong's Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) - Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

​Shandong Gold forecasts significant growth in revenue and EPS by 2027, but faces challenges from commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Rahul Jain

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

​Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

​Kakula mining suspended due to seismic activity, Ivanhoe quadruples copper output, potential resolution by late Q3 2025 with 40%+ upside at...

Rahul Jain

Shandong Gold forecasts significant growth in revenue and EPS by 2027, but faces challenges from commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Kakula mining suspended due to seismic activity, Ivanhoe quadruples copper output, potential resolution by late Q3 2025 with 40%+ upside at...