Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.</li>
<li>He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.</li>
<li>5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.</li>
</ul>


Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.
He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.
5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.


Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

<ul>
<li>Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.</li>
<li>SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.</li>
<li>Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.
SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.
Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 30th April 2025, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a>  </strong><a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0430/2025043003439.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.</li>
<li>The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation's largest gold mine.</li>
<li>A Circular is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0610/2025061000537.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a> concerning the spin-off, which is <em>not</em> subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation's largest gold mine.
A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

<ul>
<li>A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.</li>
<li>Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.</li>
<li>Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.</li>
</ul>


A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.


Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

Zijin acquires Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine, boosting reserves and production while enhancing profitability and scale.

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

A spin-off makes sense as Zijin capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However, I see Zijin trading at a single-digit discount to NAV....

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

​Zijin acquires Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine, boosting reserves and production while enhancing profitability and scale.

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

​Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

A spin-off makes sense as Zijin capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However, I see Zijin trading at a single-digit discount to NAV....

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

​Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Zijin acquires Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine, boosting reserves and production while enhancing profitability and scale.

Zijin plans IPO for overseas gold unit, aiming for 85t output by 2025; stock undervalued with potential for 25-26% upside.

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...