Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.9% as of Aug 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week-on-week, led by materials, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining, China Shenhua Energy, Tianqi Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.9% as of Aug 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week-on-week, led by materials, health care, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining, China Shenhua Energy, Tianqi Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 8th): Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 1st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan, Li Auto, TraHK HSI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 1st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Meituan, Li Auto, TraHK HSI ETF.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Li Auto, TraHK HSI ETF

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.


Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Spinoff to Cater to a Shiny Gold Market

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 8th): Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Li Auto, TraHK HSI ETF

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 1st and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Li Auto, TraHK HSI...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Spinoff to Cater to a Shiny Gold Market

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Nicholas Tan

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