Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows.</li><li>We’ve previously discussed how households that secured low rates have minimal motivation to relocate or refinance.</li><li>Consequently, there’s been a significant drop in volume, which is evident in the decline in purchase applications</li></ul>

As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows.We’ve previously discussed how households that secured low rates have minimal motivation to relocate or refinance.Consequently, there’s been a significant drop in volume, which is evident in the decline in purchase applications

Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex</li>
</ul>


This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex


Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>PropertyGuru is now the leading property technology platform in Southeast Asia</li><li>The company now serves 37 million buyers across 16 countries and works with 50,000 partner agents across its network</li><li>PropertyGuru is set to go public over the next few months through a SPAC merger with Bridgetown 2 Holdings, in a deal that values the firm at $1.78 billion</li></ul>

PropertyGuru is now the leading property technology platform in Southeast AsiaThe company now serves 37 million buyers across 16 countries and works with 50,000 partner agents across its networkPropertyGuru is set to go public over the next few months through a SPAC merger with Bridgetown 2 Holdings, in a deal that values the firm at $1.78 billion

Will PropertyGuru Face the Same Fate as Zillow

<ul>
<li>Falling analyst estimates can point to good short candidates.  This is especially true given Wall Street perpetual bias towards buy recommendations.   </li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative sales or estimate revision is temporary or if they are indications of continuing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>These shorts can have very disparate characteristics: they can have high or low beta, be expensive or cheap, be favored or shunned.</li>
</ul>


Falling analyst estimates can point to good short candidates.  This is especially true given Wall Street perpetual bias towards buy recommendations.   
The key judgement involves whether the negative sales or estimate revision is temporary or if they are indications of continuing weakness in the business. 
These shorts can have very disparate characteristics: they can have high or low beta, be expensive or cheap, be favored or shunned.


Breaking Estimates Short Model Flags Beyond Meat, Zillow, Purple & Chegg

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>Today we want to address Zillow’s decision to exit iBuying and whether or not the 25% share price drop gets us interested in owning Zillow. We will do a followup note later in the week about the overall prospects for iBuying and if we would be buyers of Opendoor or Offerpad. Spoiler alert: We’d buy Opendoor.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Today we want to address Zillow’s decision to exit iBuying and whether or not the 25% share price drop gets us interested in owning Zillow. We will do a followup note later in the week about the overall prospects for iBuying and if we would be buyers of Opendoor or Offerpad. Spoiler alert: We’d buy Opendoor.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Zillow: What Data Driven Competitive Advantage?

United States

Zillow Group, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company provides information about homes, real estate listings, and mortgages through their website and mobile applications. Zillow serves homeowners, buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals throughout the United States.

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Zillow Group Inc A (ZG US)

Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates

As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows. We’ve...

Steno Research

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

This model uncovers companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: : Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, and Trex

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Will PropertyGuru Face the Same Fate as Zillow

PropertyGuru is now the leading property technology platform in Southeast Asia. The company now serves 37 million buyers across 16 countries and...

subSPAC

Breaking Estimates Short Model Flags Beyond Meat, Zillow, Purple & Chegg

Our Breaking Estimates Short Model Calls out Beyond Meat, Zillow, Purple & Chegg as short candidate. Presented here with commentary and the...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Zillow: What Data Driven Competitive Advantage?

We are puzzled by Zillow's sudden exit from iBuying given its supposed data driven competitive advantages. While the remaining IMT biz is...

Aaron Gabin

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