Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao's Q2FY Y/Y revenue growth moderated to just +8%, and EBITA declined by -94% Y/Y</li>
<li>We believe X-border volume remains strong, but X-border price has plummeted</li>
<li>Considering CaiNiao's &amp; Alibaba's Q2FY results, unclear who makes money in X-border</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao's Q2FY Y/Y revenue growth moderated to just +8%, and EBITA declined by -94% Y/Y
We believe X-border volume remains strong, but X-border price has plummeted
Considering CaiNiao's &amp; Alibaba's Q2FY results, unclear who makes money in X-border


CaiNiao Q2FY: Pressure on Profitability Has Intensified | X-Border Competition the Likely Culprit

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's domestic parcel volumes have grown slower than overall market volumes recently; is this strategic, or simply a loss of share?</li>
<li>SF Holding is not closely aligned with any of the large online retail platforms in China; ultimately, is this independence an advantage or a disadvantage?</li>
<li>When will SF Holdings' varied international operations -- and there are a few of them -- begin to pull their own weight, in terms of profitability and growth?</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's domestic parcel volumes have grown slower than overall market volumes recently; is this strategic, or simply a loss of share?
SF Holding is not closely aligned with any of the large online retail platforms in China; ultimately, is this independence an advantage or a disadvantage?
When will SF Holdings' varied international operations -- and there are a few of them -- begin to pull their own weight, in terms of profitability and growth?


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JD US/3690 HK/BABA US:JD.com’s 7FRESH Supermarket lowers prices to gain traffic, challenging Meituan and Freshippo (+/+/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK:Kuaishou's Overseas Short-video Platform Kwai Officially Launches E-commerce in Brazil (+)</li>
<li>1024 HK:Kuaishou Game &lt;Endless Dream&gt; Surpasses 10 Million Pre-Registered Players, Announces Collaboration with &lt;Soul Knight&gt; (+)</li>
</ul>


JD US/3690 HK/BABA US:JD.com’s 7FRESH Supermarket lowers prices to gain traffic, challenging Meituan and Freshippo (+/+/+)
1024 HK:Kuaishou's Overseas Short-video Platform Kwai Officially Launches E-commerce in Brazil (+)
1024 HK:Kuaishou Game &lt;Endless Dream&gt; Surpasses 10 Million Pre-Registered Players, Announces Collaboration with &lt;Soul Knight&gt; (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/3690HK/BABA/1024HK/700HK/BIDU/3092JP/4385JP/PDD/1810HK/NTES /MSFT

<ul>
<li>September &amp; Q324 data confirm slowing of domestic parcel volume growth</li>
<li>Y/Y ASP declines also moderated in Q324, which is beneficial to margins</li>
<li>Meanwhile, X-border parcel volume growth continued to surge last month</li>
</ul>


September &amp; Q324 data confirm slowing of domestic parcel volume growth
Y/Y ASP declines also moderated in Q324, which is beneficial to margins
Meanwhile, X-border parcel volume growth continued to surge last month


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

<ul>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)</li>
<li>BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)</li>
</ul>


BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)
BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)
BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

Hong Kong

Zoetop Business Co., Limited, doing business as SHEIN, operates as a fashion e-commerce platform. The Company focuses on women's wear, men's apparel, children's clothes, accessories, shoes, bags, and other fashion items. SHEIN serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
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SHEIN (1895674D HK)

CaiNiao Q2FY: Pressure on Profitability Has Intensified | X-Border Competition the Likely Culprit

Alibaba's September financial report showed weak results from its logistics affiliate CaiNiao. What insights into Chinese X-border retail can we...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider

Investors evaluating SF Holding's upcoming Hong Kong listing need to get comfortable with three important long-term issues currently facing the...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/3690HK/BABA/1024HK/700HK/BIDU/3092JP/4385JP/PDD/1810HK/NTES /MSFT

JD.com's 7FRESH Supermarket lowers prices to compete with Meituan and Freshippo, Kuaishou launches e-commerce in Brazil and announces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

Parcel volume growth moderated for the express companies in Q3, but so did price declines. We expect the Chinese express companies to report...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

Alibaba's Tmall reports growth, expands delivery services, and launches AI-based store management tool.NetEase's Mobile Game Announces Shutdown

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CaiNiao Q2FY: Pressure on Profitability Has Intensified | X-Border Competition the Likely Culprit

Alibaba's September financial report showed weak results from its logistics affiliate CaiNiao. What insights into Chinese X-border retail can we...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider

Investors evaluating SF Holding's upcoming Hong Kong listing need to get comfortable with three important long-term issues currently facing the...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/3690HK/BABA/1024HK/700HK/BIDU/3092JP/4385JP/PDD/1810HK/NTES /MSFT

​JD.com's 7FRESH Supermarket lowers prices to compete with Meituan and Freshippo, Kuaishou launches e-commerce in Brazil and announces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

Parcel volume growth moderated for the express companies in Q3, but so did price declines. We expect the Chinese express companies to report...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

​Alibaba's Tmall reports growth, expands delivery services, and launches AI-based store management tool.NetEase's Mobile Game Announces Shutdown

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com's 7FRESH Supermarket lowers prices to compete with Meituan and Freshippo, Kuaishou launches e-commerce in Brazil and announces...

Alibaba's Tmall reports growth, expands delivery services, and launches AI-based store management tool.NetEase's Mobile Game Announces Shutdown