Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SHEIN/PDD: France to restrict sales of fast - fashion (-/-)</li>
<li>NTES: After The Release of The New Expansion Pack For &lt;Beyond the World&gt;, It Climbed to the 3rd Position on iOS Games Grossing Chart in China (+)</li>
<li>6618 HK：JD Health's revenue in 2H23 exceeded expectations, while profits fell short, and revenue and profit guidance for 2024 both worse than consensus（-）</li>
</ul>


SHEIN/PDD: France to restrict sales of fast - fashion (-/-)
NTES: After The Release of The New Expansion Pack For &lt;Beyond the World&gt;, It Climbed to the 3rd Position on iOS Games Grossing Chart in China (+)
6618 HK：JD Health's revenue in 2H23 exceeded expectations, while profits fell short, and revenue and profit guidance for 2024 both worse than consensus（-）


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A listing in London would not remove de minimis reform risk in US market</li>
<li>A new report quantifies the potential cost of changes to US de minimis rules</li>
<li>Europe's rigorous new 'digital services' laws are an emerging threat to SHEIN</li>
</ul>


A listing in London would not remove de minimis reform risk in US market
A new report quantifies the potential cost of changes to US de minimis rules
Europe's rigorous new 'digital services' laws are an emerging threat to SHEIN


Shifting Its Planned IPO from New York to London Won't Address Key Risks Facing SHEIN

<ul>
<li>Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low</li>
<li>Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable</li>
<li>International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars</li>
</ul>


Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

Hong Kong

Zoetop Business Co., Limited, doing business as SHEIN, operates as a fashion e-commerce platform. The Company focuses on women's wear, men's apparel, children's clothes, accessories, shoes, bags, and other fashion items. SHEIN serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SHEIN (1895674D HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

France to restrict sales of fast-fashion; JD Health's revenue exceeds expectations but profits fall short with worse guidance for 2024. NTES...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Shifting Its Planned IPO from New York to London Won't Address Key Risks Facing SHEIN

Shifting SHEIN's IPO from New York to London would not mitigate the risk of US de minimis reforms; plus, new EU rules for large e-comm and social...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

​France to restrict sales of fast-fashion; JD Health's revenue exceeds expectations but profits fall short with worse guidance for 2024. NTES...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Shifting Its Planned IPO from New York to London Won't Address Key Risks Facing SHEIN

Shifting SHEIN's IPO from New York to London would not mitigate the risk of US de minimis reforms; plus, new EU rules for large e-comm and social...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

France to restrict sales of fast-fashion; JD Health's revenue exceeds expectations but profits fall short with worse guidance for 2024. NTES...