Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months</li>
<li>We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424</li>
<li>We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space</li>
</ul>


Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: NBS November residential new home turn positive YoY, and home price stabilized（+）</li>
<li>300274 CH: Renewable Energy News: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Chinese Photovoltaic Products to 50%（-）</li>
<li>ACMR US: ACMR sees minimal impact on ability to manufacture and sell tools due to U.S. entity list inclusion (+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: NBS November residential new home turn positive YoY, and home price stabilized（+）
300274 CH: Renewable Energy News: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Chinese Photovoltaic Products to 50%（-）
ACMR US: ACMR sees minimal impact on ability to manufacture and sell tools due to U.S. entity list inclusion (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/300274 CH/ACMR US/NIO US/XPEV US/ Li US/1810HK/ZTO US/Macro News/Consumer

<ul>
<li>SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics</li>
<li>SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com</li>
</ul>


SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics
SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement
JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

<ul>
<li>981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US: China industry associations send warning over sourcing US chips (+/+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ACMR US: Limited impact from the addition of its subsidiaries to entity-list (/)</li>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 32% yoy in the prior week (+)</li>
</ul>


981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US: China industry associations send warning over sourcing US chips (+/+/-/-/-/-)
ACMR US: Limited impact from the addition of its subsidiaries to entity-list (/)
ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 32% yoy in the prior week (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)</li>
<li>BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)
BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)
ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/300274 CH/ACMR US/NIO US/XPEV US/ Li US/1810HK/ZTO US/Macro News/Consumer

Positive news for the US housing market as new home sales increase and prices stabilize, while Chinese renewable energy products face higher...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

We offer a head-to-head comparison of SF Holding and JD Logistics, direct competitors in Chinese e-comm fulfillment that are now both listed in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

China industry associations warn about sourcing US chips, limited impact on ACMR from entity-list, ZTO sees 32% yoy growth in parcel delivery volume.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/300274 CH/ACMR US/NIO US/XPEV US/ Li US/1810HK/ZTO US/Macro News/Consumer

​Positive news for the US housing market as new home sales increase and prices stabilize, while Chinese renewable energy products face higher...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

We offer a head-to-head comparison of SF Holding and JD Logistics, direct competitors in Chinese e-comm fulfillment that are now both listed in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

​China industry associations warn about sourcing US chips, limited impact on ACMR from entity-list, ZTO sees 32% yoy growth in parcel delivery volume.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

​Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Positive news for the US housing market as new home sales increase and prices stabilize, while Chinese renewable energy products face higher...

China industry associations warn about sourcing US chips, limited impact on ACMR from entity-list, ZTO sees 32% yoy growth in parcel delivery volume.

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...