Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125</li>
<li>We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression</li>
<li>SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting</li>
</ul>


H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125
We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression
SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting


SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A month into SHEIN's IPO process, its near-term (FY26) growth prospects are downbeat</li>
<li>Here we present an array of FY27e PERs based on a range of top-line, OPM% estimates</li>
<li>Objective is to show combinations of revenue growth, margin that make SHEIN cheap-ish</li>
</ul>


A month into SHEIN's IPO process, its near-term (FY26) growth prospects are downbeat
Here we present an array of FY27e PERs based on a range of top-line, OPM% estimates
Objective is to show combinations of revenue growth, margin that make SHEIN cheap-ish


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: What 2027E Revenue Growth, OPM% Assumptions Are Needed to Make It Cheap-Ish?

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)</li>
<li>BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  </li>
</ul>


NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)
ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)
BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

<ul>
<li>NTES/700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Dream Star&gt; didn't perform as well as NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; during the Spring Festival.(+/-)</li>
<li>PDD/AMZN/SHEIN: Temu search queries pass SHEIN after running Super Bowl ads (+/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA: Parcel volume delivery increased ~31% during the Spring Festival period (+)</li>
</ul>


NTES/700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Dream Star&gt; didn't perform as well as NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; during the Spring Festival.(+/-)
PDD/AMZN/SHEIN: Temu search queries pass SHEIN after running Super Bowl ads (+/-/-)
ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA: Parcel volume delivery increased ~31% during the Spring Festival period (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: NTES/700 HK/PDD/AMZN/SHEIN/ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>300274 SZ: Sungrow preannounced full-year profit to exceed expectations (+)</li>
<li>LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto's deliveries rose in the third week of January, ranking first among new forces, but still lower than expected (-)</li>
<li>BEKE: Chongqing raised the levy standard of property tax (+)</li>
</ul>


300274 SZ: Sungrow preannounced full-year profit to exceed expectations (+)
LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto's deliveries rose in the third week of January, ranking first among new forces, but still lower than expected (-)
BEKE: Chongqing raised the levy standard of property tax (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: ATAT/HTHT/TCOM/300750CH/1211HK/835185CH/ 600516CH/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: What 2027E Revenue Growth, OPM% Assumptions Are Needed to Make It Cheap-Ish?

In this insight we present a matrix of Revenue and OP margin assumptions so readers can see which combinations could potentially generate strong...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: NTES/700 HK/PDD/AMZN/SHEIN/ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA

NetEase's outperformed Tencent's during Spring Festival; Temu search queries surpass SHEIN after Super Bowl ads; Parcel delivery volume up 31%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: ATAT/HTHT/TCOM/300750CH/1211HK/835185CH/ 600516CH/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

Sungrow's full-year profit exceeds expectations; Li Auto's deliveries improve but fall short; Chongqing raises property tax levy standard.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

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SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: What 2027E Revenue Growth, OPM% Assumptions Are Needed to Make It Cheap-Ish?

In this insight we present a matrix of Revenue and OP margin assumptions so readers can see which combinations could potentially generate strong...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

​ has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: NTES/700 HK/PDD/AMZN/SHEIN/ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA

​NetEase's outperformed Tencent's during Spring Festival; Temu search queries surpass SHEIN after Super Bowl ads; Parcel delivery volume up 31%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: ATAT/HTHT/TCOM/300750CH/1211HK/835185CH/ 600516CH/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

​Sungrow's full-year profit exceeds expectations; Li Auto's deliveries improve but fall short; Chongqing raises property tax levy standard.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

NetEase's outperformed Tencent's during Spring Festival; Temu search queries surpass SHEIN after Super Bowl ads; Parcel delivery volume up 31%...

Sungrow's full-year profit exceeds expectations; Li Auto's deliveries improve but fall short; Chongqing raises property tax levy standard.