Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Another set of strong results from YMM, revenue and core earnings both up</li>
<li>Need to monitor orders per MAU; reason for decline in Q224 unclear</li>
<li>Maintain US$9.45/ADS target price, ADSs are attractive closer to US$7</li>
</ul>


Another set of strong results from YMM, revenue and core earnings both up
Need to monitor orders per MAU; reason for decline in Q224 unclear
Maintain US$9.45/ADS target price, ADSs are attractive closer to US$7


Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

<ul>
<li>Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA</li>
<li>But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it</li>
</ul>


Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA
But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow
ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it


ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US: The drink "Tengyun American" coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game was sold out in its first day （/）</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)</li>
<li>Consumer Industry update:China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US: The drink "Tengyun American" coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game was sold out in its first day （/）
1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)
Consumer Industry update:China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>700 HK: Based on &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; Developer Nexon's 2Q24 Financial Report, the Game Generated around RMB 7bn in Revenue During the Quarter (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;League of Legends&gt; to Introduce Another PVE Game Mode (+)</li>
<li>BILI US: Bilibili's &lt;Aether Gazer&gt; to Shut Down on November 12 (/)</li>
</ul>


700 HK: Based on &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; Developer Nexon's 2Q24 Financial Report, the Game Generated around RMB 7bn in Revenue During the Quarter (+)
700 HK: &lt;League of Legends&gt; to Introduce Another PVE Game Mode (+)
BILI US: Bilibili's &lt;Aether Gazer&gt; to Shut Down on November 12 (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/BABA US/PDD US/JD/3690HK/ZTO/1519HK/2352 CH/SHEIN/TCOM

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

Full Truck Alliance reported another strong set of numbers in Q224. After a surprisng Y/Y decline in orders per MAU, we will monitor this number...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

ZTO's headline Q224 numbers look OK, but they don't paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the core express segment. We suggest investors...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/BABA US/PDD US/JD/3690HK/ZTO/1519HK/2352 CH/SHEIN/TCOM

Nexon's <dnf mobile> game generates RMB 7bn, League of Legends adds new PVE mode, Bilibili's <aether gazer> shutting down on November 12.<...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

Full Truck Alliance reported another strong set of numbers in Q224. After a surprisng Y/Y decline in orders per MAU, we will monitor this number...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

ZTO's headline Q224 numbers look OK, but they don't paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the core express segment. We suggest investors...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

​Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/BABA US/PDD US/JD/3690HK/ZTO/1519HK/2352 CH/SHEIN/TCOM

​Nexon's <dnf mobile> game generates RMB 7bn, League of Legends adds new PVE mode, Bilibili's <aether gazer> shutting down on November 12.<...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Nexon's <dnf mobile> game generates RMB 7bn, League of Legends adds new PVE mode, Bilibili's <aether gazer> shutting down on November 12.<...