Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>ZTO reported C4Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.2%), (3.8%), and in-line vs. cons., respectively;</li>
<li>There are two concurrent trends in the last-mile market: (1) improved service quality, and (2) smaller parcel sizes. Both are favorable to ZTO, in our view;</li>
<li>ZTO announced new shareholder return plans, which we estimate could return US$ 1.4bn to investors in 2024 for a 7.7% yield;</li>
</ul>


ZTO reported C4Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.2%), (3.8%), and in-line vs. cons., respectively;
There are two concurrent trends in the last-mile market: (1) improved service quality, and (2) smaller parcel sizes. Both are favorable to ZTO, in our view;
ZTO announced new shareholder return plans, which we estimate could return US$ 1.4bn to investors in 2024 for a 7.7% yield;


[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)</li>
<li>BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  </li>
</ul>


NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)
ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)
BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

ZTO's strong financials, favorable market trends, and new shareholder return plans position the company for continued growth and investor returns.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

​ZTO's strong financials, favorable market trends, and new shareholder return plans position the company for continued growth and investor returns.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

​ has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO's strong financials, favorable market trends, and new shareholder return plans position the company for continued growth and investor returns.

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...