Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+</li>
<li>But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix</li>
<li>Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price</li>
</ul>


In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+
But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix
Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price


JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.</li>
<li>Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China &amp; HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.</li>
<li>Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.</li>
</ul>


Active conviction rising: China Industrials allocations are nearing all-time highs, with record participation and expanding net overweights despite a declining MSCI EM benchmark weight.
Clear conviction overweight: 76% of GEM funds are overweight China &amp; HK Industrials, making it the strongest country/sector conviction play across the EM universe.
Broadening beyond CATL: While CATL remains dominant, ownership is widening to emerging names, even as second-tier stocks show sharper rotations and selective positioning.


China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

<ul>
<li>H1/Q2 results largely match tone of management guidance from the IPO process</li>
<li>Revenue barely grew, and margins shrank due to higher Fulfilment costs (tied to oil)</li>
<li>Shares are down over 27% from IPO; any break from fuel costs could boost bottom-line</li>
</ul>


H1/Q2 results largely match tone of management guidance from the IPO process
Revenue barely grew, and margins shrank due to higher Fulfilment costs (tied to oil)
Shares are down over 27% from IPO; any break from fuel costs could boost bottom-line


SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply

<ul>
<li>China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)</li>
<li>SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained</li>
<li>We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity</li>
</ul>


China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)
SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained
We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Shares have "round tripped" since March 2026 and at HK$10 there appears to be lots of negativity baked into the price. At just 8x consensus 2026F...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

China Industrials are back in focus. Active EM managers are increasing exposure, participation is at record highs, and conviction is spreading...

Steven Holden

SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply

SHEIN disclosed H126 financial results, which show few surprises: revenue growth is still depressed, and margins continue to shrink due to high...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Chinese domestic express parcel volume growth slowed in August (vs July and Q2), suggesting softer online retail activity. For stronger growth in...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Shares have "round tripped" since March 2026 and at HK$10 there appears to be lots of negativity baked into the price. At just 8x consensus 2026F...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Industrials: EM’s Key Overweight Grows Stronger

China Industrials are back in focus. Active EM managers are increasing exposure, participation is at record highs, and conviction is spreading...

Steven Holden

SHEIN H1/Q2 Results | Slow Top-Line Growth, More Margin Compression | Fulfilment Costs Up Sharply

SHEIN disclosed H126 financial results, which show few surprises: revenue growth is still depressed, and margins continue to shrink due to high...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Chinese domestic express parcel volume growth slowed in August (vs July and Q2), suggesting softer online retail activity. For stronger growth in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...