Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth</li>
<li>Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further</li>
</ul>


In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further


ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023</li>
<li>For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged</li>
<li>But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns</li>
</ul>


Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns


SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

<ul>
<li>SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
</li>
<li>Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 -- how'd they do it?</li>
<li>Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability</li>
</ul>


SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest

Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 -- how'd they do it?
Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability


Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus (DADA US)</a> disclosed a binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).</li>
<li>The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. </li>
<li>Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.</li>
</ul>



Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. 
Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.


Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates</li>
<li>Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?</li>
<li>With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding</li>
</ul>


By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates
Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?
With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

ZTO Express reported core margin compression again in Q125, despite an acceleration of volume growth and impressive cost control. "Key accounts"...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

Our personal shopping "experiment" suggests that SHEIN has lost most of the price advantage it enjoyed over US eComm giant Amazon a year and a half...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

Chinese express companies SF Holding and STO Express followed two very disparate paths to Op Inc margin expansion in Q1 2025

Tracking Traffic

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.

Arun George

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

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