Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates</li>
<li>Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?</li>
<li>With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding</li>
</ul>


By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates
Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?
With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

<ul>
<li>H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin</li>
<li>However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power</li>
<li>Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive</li>
</ul>


H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin
However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power
Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive


J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

<ul>
<li>Investors had hoped to see tangible benefits of Taobao / Tmall access in Q424 results</li>
<li>But revenue growth acceleration was unimpressive, and core margins fell noticeably</li>
<li>We believe its disappointing Q424 numbers will result in near-term underperformance</li>
</ul>


Investors had hoped to see tangible benefits of Taobao / Tmall access in Q424 results
But revenue growth acceleration was unimpressive, and core margins fell noticeably
We believe its disappointing Q424 numbers will result in near-term underperformance


JD Logistics Q424 Earnings: Taobao / Tmall Access Fails to Generate Expected Benefits

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN</li>
<li>The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 
</li>
<li>Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation</li>
</ul>


Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 

Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation


It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the December quarter, CaiNiao's revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too</li>
<li>CaiNiao's revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba's international segment</li>
<li>We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail
</li>
</ul>


In the December quarter, CaiNiao's revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too
CaiNiao's revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba's international segment
We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail



CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

J&T Global's H224 earnings appear solid on the surface, but a closer look reveals that drivers of the company's improved profitability in recent...

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics Q424 Earnings: Taobao / Tmall Access Fails to Generate Expected Benefits

JD Logistics' Q424 results showed no benefit from almost a full quarter's worth of access to Alibaba's Taobao / Tmall platforms. We believe...

Tracking Traffic

It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Over the past two+ years, SHEIN has faced a deluge of developments that threaten its future growth and profitability, especially in the US.

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Alibaba's latest quarterly earnings release shows that X-border logistics pricing and the pricing of X-border retail itself both remain under...

Tracking Traffic

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