Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the December quarter, CaiNiao's revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too</li>
<li>CaiNiao's revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba's international segment</li>
<li>We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail
</li>
</ul>


In the December quarter, CaiNiao's revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too
CaiNiao's revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba's international segment
We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail



CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus (DADA US)</a> disclosed a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).</li>
<li>The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. </li>
</ul>



Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges. 
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. 


Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

<ul>
<li>Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?</li>
<li>In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs</li>
</ul>


Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs


ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Alibaba's latest quarterly earnings release shows that X-border logistics pricing and the pricing of X-border retail itself both remain under...

Tracking Traffic

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

The offer is light but the vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the...

Arun George

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

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Market Cap (USDm)

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CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Alibaba's latest quarterly earnings release shows that X-border logistics pricing and the pricing of X-border retail itself both remain under...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

The offer is light but the vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the...

Arun George

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...