Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Robert is the Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst of Real Estate Foresight Ltd (REF) (www.realestateforesight.com), an independent analytics, research, and consulting firm based in Hong Kong and focused on the Mainland China property markets. 

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development.

This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities.

The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

More info: https://www.realestateforesight.com

Robert started the company in 2012, after 13 years at Thomson Reuters in two major roles as Global Head of Real Estate Markets (London/Hong Kong) and earlier as Head of Corporate Foresight in Group Strategy in London. He holds a dual MBA degree from London Business School and Columbia Business School in New York, and MSc from Warsaw School of Economics. Robert holds an international master in chess title.

In 2017, Robert founded Robotic Online Intelligence Ltd (ROI) (www.roboticonline.ai), a startup in AI-powered automation of research for data collection and market intelligence, serving primarily data companies and research firms. 

ROI's Kubro(TM) Information Engine enterprise SaaS solution has been deployed commercially since 2018, with clients in the US, UK, and Asia, in areas ranging from real estate, and policy research, to data centers, and carbon and digital asset markets.

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Feb 12-26, 2026

China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

Hong Kong Property: The Housing Market Rebound In Numbers And Charts - March 2026 Data

China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Equity real estate investment trusts (reits) / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"