ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

Vinfast: Ambitious EV Plan Seems Unrealistic; Share Price Down More than 50%

Conviction Call Recruit: All Good Things Must Come to an End

GoTo: Growth in Top Line Doesn't Mean Improvement in Profitability

M3: Valuation to Further Drop as Earnings Momentum Slows Down

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.</li>
<li>4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.</li>
<li>With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.
4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.
With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.


2022 High Conviction - Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets