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3 Hard Truths About ENSO Forecast
SUMMARY
- The IRI/CCSR prediction plume goes out every month and travels far — onto commodity desks, into insurance notes, through agricultural outlooks.
- It is among the most widely shared forecasts in macro, and among the least well read.
- We backtested all 291 plume starts since May 2002, roughly 6,800 model runs, against the observed Oceanic Niño Index. Three things stand out.
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- 3 Hard Truths About ENSO Forecast15 Sep 2026
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