Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Farha Sabri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class=""><li>3D NAND is the latest development in NAND flash after 2D NAND faced roadblocks from downsizing issues and current leakages.</li><li>The transition to the newest technology wasn't the smoothest and this led to under supply in the market and a subsequent price hike of SSDs in 2017.</li><li>At the beginning of this year, the market experienced a turnaround and saw an excess supply of 3D NAND as a result of a high rate of capacity expansions. However, we believe that by year end, the 3D NAND market may recover somewhat from the recent excess supply due to manufacturers reducing capacity expansions as well as a pick up in the handset market.</li><li>At present, manufacturers are involved in transitioning from 3bits/cell to 4bits/cell as well as increasing stacking to 96 layers.</li><li>Consensus estimates conclude that the 3D NAND market will grow at a CAGR of 33% over the seven-year period ending 2022. </li></ul>

3D NAND is the latest development in NAND flash after 2D NAND faced roadblocks from downsizing issues and current leakages.The transition to the newest technology wasn't the smoothest and this led to under supply in the market and a subsequent price hike of SSDs in 2017.At the beginning of this year, the market experienced a turnaround and saw an excess supply of 3D NAND as a result of a high rate of capacity expansions. However, we believe that by year end, the 3D NAND market may recover somewhat from the recent excess supply due to manufacturers reducing capacity expansions as well as a pick up in the handset market.At present, manufacturers are involved in transitioning from 3bits/cell to 4bits/cell as well as increasing stacking to 96 layers.Consensus estimates conclude that the 3D NAND market will grow at a CAGR of 33% over the seven-year period ending 2022. 

3D NAND Oversupply Expected to Correct Itself By Year End?