Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Rising Liquidity And The Threat of 5% US Bond Yields

Steno Signals #81 – Fed member promises that QT is effectively already over

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

<ul>
<li>'Stealth QE’ from the US Fed set to continue, but US Treasury is the ‘back seat driver’</li>
<li>Treasury wrestling to cap near-term coupon supply to avoid rising yields, but Fed willing to let regional banks’ liquidity levels rise</li>
<li>Rising public debt is the major bogey: pushed up by demographics and monetized by Fed and Treasury. 10-year yields will re-test 5¼%</li>
</ul>


'Stealth QE’ from the US Fed set to continue, but US Treasury is the ‘back seat driver’
Treasury wrestling to cap near-term coupon supply to avoid rising yields, but Fed willing to let regional banks’ liquidity levels rise
Rising public debt is the major bogey: pushed up by demographics and monetized by Fed and Treasury. 10-year yields will re-test 5¼%


A ‘Back Seat’ Bond Yield Driver: US Treasury Is Forcing The Fed To End QT. US Yields To Re-Test 5¼%?