Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Singapore: When Will MAS Normalise Policy?

Singapore: Snag in Succession Points to Deeper Weaknesses in Political System

Singapore At Risk from Increasing Scrutiny over Global Tax Games

Singapore: Sizable Labour Market Slack Despite Growth Rebound in 2021

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>
Policy support to the economy will significantly taper over the course of the year, with the estimated fiscal impulse reaching a record negative of -6.1% of GDP in FY21, down from 12.5% of GDP in FY20. We reckon that the policymakers may be banking on the anticipated rebound in external demand to lift the sails of the Singapore economy, given its extremely high beta to global growth.</li>
</ul>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Given ample fiscal space, the prevailing economic backdrop characterised by sizable labour market slack and weak hiring sentiment, and the asymmetry of risks associated with providing more support to the economy, the optimal policy choice may have been to maintain a higher level of discretionary fiscal spending that catalyses a more robust recovery in the domestic-oriented sectors, as the economy awaits the pick-up in external demand.</li>
<li>
On the structural front, we remain relatively circumspect on the efficacy of the measures outlined by the government. In our view, the structural adjustments that are needed to reverse the economy’s poor record on productivity and innovation has to do with macro-economic policy choices e.g. the desired rate of labour force expansion, adequate provision of social expenditure, governance standards within the government-linked corporate (GLC) sector, and top-down SME industrial policy, rather than sectoral and firm-level incentives.</li>
</ul>



Policy support to the economy will significantly taper over the course of the year, with the estimated fiscal impulse reaching a record negative of -6.1% of GDP in FY21, down from 12.5% of GDP in FY20. We reckon that the policymakers may be banking on the anticipated rebound in external demand to lift the sails of the Singapore economy, given its extremely high beta to global growth.


Given ample fiscal space, the prevailing economic backdrop characterised by sizable labour market slack and weak hiring sentiment, and the asymmetry of risks associated with providing more support to the economy, the optimal policy choice may have been to maintain a higher level of discretionary fiscal spending that catalyses a more robust recovery in the domestic-oriented sectors, as the economy awaits the pick-up in external demand.

On the structural front, we remain relatively circumspect on the efficacy of the measures outlined by the government. In our view, the structural adjustments that are needed to reverse the economy’s poor record on productivity and innovation has to do with macro-economic policy choices e.g. the desired rate of labour force expansion, adequate provision of social expenditure, governance standards within the government-linked corporate (GLC) sector, and top-down SME industrial policy, rather than sectoral and firm-level incentives.


A Prudent, Safe Budget, But Is It What Singapore Needs?