Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Former Head of Asia ex-Japan Semiconductor and TFT-LCD/Touch Research at Barclays and Citi Bank, Former Head of Technology at 國金證券

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours

PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

A Bull Investment Case for TSMC (Summary Version)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By offering 15k and 30k/m 3nm capacity by 4Q24/4Q25 to Intel, TSMC will see Intel becoming one of its top 3 customers by accounting for 12% of TSMC 2025 sales</li>
<li>By leveraging 3nm outsourcing, Intel will have incremental sales/capacity growth of 19-20% per year by accounting for 28%/44% of sales in 2024/2025, beating consensus' 14%/9% y/y sales growth for 2024/2025.</li>
<li>We estimate 30-35% 5 years EPS CAGR for Intel, driven by TSMC's 2/3nm foundry support, lower cost and process R&amp;D, lower capex and depreciation cost, and AI PC CPU launch.</li>
</ul>


By offering 15k and 30k/m 3nm capacity by 4Q24/4Q25 to Intel, TSMC will see Intel becoming one of its top 3 customers by accounting for 12% of TSMC 2025 sales
By leveraging 3nm outsourcing, Intel will have incremental sales/capacity growth of 19-20% per year by accounting for 28%/44% of sales in 2024/2025, beating consensus' 14%/9% y/y sales growth for 2024/2025.
We estimate 30-35% 5 years EPS CAGR for Intel, driven by TSMC's 2/3nm foundry support, lower cost and process R&amp;D, lower capex and depreciation cost, and AI PC CPU launch.


A Turnaround Story for Intel by Accelerating 3nm Outsourcing to TSMC?

Intel Corp

A Turnaround Story for Intel by Accelerating 3nm Outsourcing to TSMC?