European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

Dowlais Group — American Axle & Manufacturing agreed offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EU clearance confirmed 27 Oct 2025; seven of ten jurisdictions approved. Remaining reviews in Brazil, Mexico, and China progress. Management now targets Q1 2026 completion, extending earlier Q4 2025 timeline.</li>
<li>Implied offer value 85.8 p (AXL $6.49; GBP/USD 1.3313) vs DWL 83 p yields 3.4 % spread, or ~7–10 % annualised return under the revised Q1 2026 closing guidance.</li>
<li>Funding and shareholder approvals complete; deal risk remains low and primarily timing-related. Residual focus on SAMR clearance and FX/AXL volatility driving daily implied consideration.</li>
</ul>


EU clearance confirmed 27 Oct 2025; seven of ten jurisdictions approved. Remaining reviews in Brazil, Mexico, and China progress. Management now targets Q1 2026 completion, extending earlier Q4 2025 timeline.
Implied offer value 85.8 p (AXL $6.49; GBP/USD 1.3313) vs DWL 83 p yields 3.4 % spread, or ~7–10 % annualised return under the revised Q1 2026 closing guidance.
Funding and shareholder approvals complete; deal risk remains low and primarily timing-related. Residual focus on SAMR clearance and FX/AXL volatility driving daily implied consideration.


American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL US)

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.

AAM-Dowlais: EU Cleared, 7/10 Approvals — Spread ~3.4%, Close Now Guided to Q1’26