European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

AAM-Dowlais: EU Cleared, 7/10 Approvals — Spread ~3.4%, Close Now Guided to Q1’26

Dowlais Group — American Axle & Manufacturing agreed offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.</li>
<li>Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.</li>
<li>Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.</li>
</ul>


Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.
Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.
Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.


American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL US)

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return