European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

ABF - Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ABF confirms Primark demerger, removing key uncertainty; shares down 17% since November, suggesting execution and timing concerns dominate despite clearer structure and shareholder support.</li>
<li>Revised SOTP of £25.5/share implies ~39% upside; valuation gap persists after incorporating £75m separation costs and £45m dis-synergies, indicating market underpricing of structural value.</li>
<li>Investment case shifts to execution phase; we favour long ABF (outright or hedged) as investors are paid to wait for re-rating ahead of 2027 separation and improved capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


ABF confirms Primark demerger, removing key uncertainty; shares down 17% since November, suggesting execution and timing concerns dominate despite clearer structure and shareholder support.
Revised SOTP of £25.5/share implies ~39% upside; valuation gap persists after incorporating £75m separation costs and £45m dis-synergies, indicating market underpricing of structural value.
Investment case shifts to execution phase; we favour long ABF (outright or hedged) as investors are paid to wait for re-rating ahead of 2027 separation and improved capital allocation.


ABF: Primark Demerger Confirmed, but the SOTP Gap Remains

Associated British Foods

ABF: Primark Demerger Confirmed, but the SOTP Gap Remains