Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Capital market veteran with 22 years experience with stints as an analyst (sell-side & buyside), investor relations and fund manager. 

My key expertise in the aviation sector. My definition of "aviation" includes airlines, travel tours, airports, airport retail & services, OEMs, online travel agents, aircraft lessors, air cargo/logistics, etc.   

I have an active watchlist consisting 190 companies across 41 countries. The aviation sector is highly cyclical and I am constantly evaluating signals to uncover attractive trade opportunities.

Aercap Secondary Offer: Overhang No More and It Is Cheap, BUY

Aercap (AER US, BUY, TP:US$81.45): Current Market Value Exceeds Book Value

Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points

BOC Aviation (2588 HK, BUY, TP:HKD70): High Quality Safe Bet

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aercap-holdings-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28083:1" rel="noopener">AerCap Holdings NV (AER US)</a> (AerCap) 2023 result was excellent; record core profit of USD2.4b, 27% ROE, and share buyback of USD2.6b of shares (~18% shares in issue) </li>
<li>Management guided continued growth in 2024 and announced a further USD500m share buyback (~3% shares in issue). We think it can easily beat this lowball target       </li>
<li>Poised for growth; aircraft lease rates and asset values are rising. Maintain BUY with higher TP of USD90.6 (+16% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x (1SD above LT average)   </li>
</ul>



AerCap Holdings NV (AER US) (AerCap) 2023 result was excellent; record core profit of USD2.4b, 27% ROE, and share buyback of USD2.6b of shares (~18% shares in issue) 
Management guided continued growth in 2024 and announced a further USD500m share buyback (~3% shares in issue). We think it can easily beat this lowball target       
Poised for growth; aircraft lease rates and asset values are rising. Maintain BUY with higher TP of USD90.6 (+16% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x (1SD above LT average)   


AerCap (AER US): Splendid 2023, More to Come in 2024