European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Aggreko - PE Consortium: Recommended Cash Acquisition

Aggreko: £2bn Potential Bid from PE Consortium

Event-Driven

The resolution to approve the scheme for the recommended cash acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aggreko-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21804:1" rel="noopener">Aggreko PLC (AGK LN)</a> was passed at the Court Meeting and the special resolution to implement it was passed at the EGM. Still awaiting antitrust clearance and foreign investment clearance.
In the meantime, there has no been further news of interloper risk (Platinum Equity was mentioned by Bloomberg in early March) and no further news regarding shareholders opposing the deal. Thus spread (negative at the time of my last Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aggreko-pe-consortium-recommended-cash-acquisition" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48857" rel="noopener">Aggreko - PE Consortium: Recommended Cash Acquisition</a>) has been steadily decreasing and is now positive.
This, I believe, is a great outcome for the shareholders of Aggreko, as the charts below show.
The offer price represents 20x Fwd P/E, above its 10 year average of 16.1x, and 14.1x EV/EBITA, again above 10 year average of 9.9x (source: Capital IQ consensus).
Gross spread is 2%, c. 8% annualised assuming a 3 month completion (although it is expected to become effective at the beginning of Q3). Recommendation is long Aggreko, TP 880p.

The resolution to approve the scheme for the recommended cash acquisition of Aggreko PLC (AGK LN) was passed at the Court Meeting and the special resolution to implement it was passed at the EGM. Still awaiting antitrust clearance and foreign investment clearance.
In the meantime, there has no been further news of interloper risk (Platinum Equity was mentioned by Bloomberg in early March) and no further news regarding shareholders opposing the deal. Thus spread (negative at the time of my last Insight Aggreko - PE Consortium: Recommended Cash Acquisition) has been steadily decreasing and is now positive.
This, I believe, is a great outcome for the shareholders of Aggreko, as the charts below show.
The offer price represents 20x Fwd P/E, above its 10 year average of 16.1x, and 14.1x EV/EBITA, again above 10 year average of 9.9x (source: Capital IQ consensus).
Gross spread is 2%, c. 8% annualised assuming a 3 month completion (although it is expected to become effective at the beginning of Q3). Recommendation is long Aggreko, TP 880p.

Aggreko: Shareholders' Meeting, Spread Turned Positive