Ags did something they did last time in 2009

89 Views08 Sep 2026 00:06

Syndicated

SUMMARY

On my socials the chart claiming El Nino leads world food prices by 12 months is making the rounds again, but the correlation behind it is actually weak (just +0.13, barely significant and explaining under 2% of the variation)
That doesn't change our view that we still expect upward pressure on ag commodity prices this cycle, based not on one macro chart but on the mechanism-specific signals we've tested individually…
Cocoa's ONI momentum signal, Corn Belt heat, the live Texas-Xinjiang cotton stress, and an Indian monsoon tracking the textbook strong-El-Nino pattern.

Try Now

Begin exploring Smartkarma's AI-augmented investing intelligence platform with a complimentary Preview Pass to:

Join 55,000+ investors, including top global asset managers overseeing $13+ trillion.

Upgrade later to our paid plans for full-access.

SMARTKARMA PREVIEW PASS

By signing up, you agree to our
Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Already have an account? Sign In Now

Discussions

(Paid Plans Only)

Price Chart(Sign Up to Access)

Insight Stream